Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Behavioral Probability Weighting and Portfolio Optimization under Semi-Heavy Tails

This paper develops a unified framework that integrates behavioral distortions into rational portfolio optimization by extracting implied probability weighting functions (PWFs) from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and Normal-Inverse-Gaussian (NIG) return distributions. Using DJIA constitue

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 8 ·  July 6, 2025

Multivariate Affine GARCH with Heavy Tails: A Unified Framework for Portfolio Optimization and Option Valuation

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the Heston-Nandi framework to a multivariate setting and apply it to 30 Do

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 7.5 ·  May 18, 2025

Implied Probabilities and Volatility in Credit Risk: A Merton-Based Approach with Binomial Trees

We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm’s asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages: first, we calibrate the asset volatility using the Black-Scholes

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7 ·  June 15, 2025

The Financial Market of Indices of Socioeconomic Wellbeing

The financial industry should be involved in mitigating the risk of downturns in the financial wellbeing indices around the world by implementing well-developed financial tools such as insurance instruments on the underlying wellbeing indices. We define a new quantitative measure of the wellbeing of

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 5 ·  March 10, 2023

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