Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Financial Stochastic Models Diffusion: From Risk-Neutral to Real-World Measure

This research presents a comprehensive framework for transitioning financial diffusion models from the risk-neutral (RN) measure to the real-world (RW) measure, leveraging results from probability theory, specifically Girsanov’s theorem. The RN measure, fundamental in derivative pricing, is contrast

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  September 19, 2024

Credit Spreads' Term Structure: Stochastic Modeling with CIR++ Intensity

This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily addresses two gaps in the literature. The first is the lack of

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 6 ·  September 13, 2024

How can the dual martingale help solving the primal optimal stopping problem?

Motivated by recent results on the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems, we investigate in this short paper how the knowledge of an approximating dual martingale can improve the efficiency of primal methods. In particular, we show on numerical examples that accurate approximations of a dual

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 6 ·  February 10, 2026

Weak error approximation for rough and Gaussian mean-reverting stochastic volatility models

For a class of stochastic models with Gaussian and rough mean-reverting volatility that embeds the genuine rough Stein-Stein model, we study the weak approximation rate when using a Euler type scheme with integrated kernels. Our first result is a weak convergence rate for the discretised rough Ornst

Lab Rats Math 9.5 Rigor 1.5 ·  February 20, 2026

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