Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Interpretable Hypothesis-Driven Trading:A Rigorous Walk-Forward Validation Framework for Market Microstructure Signals

We develop a rigorous walk-forward validation framework for algorithmic trading designed to mitigate overfitting and lookahead bias. Our methodology combines interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation with reinforcement learning and strict out-of-sample testing. The framework enforces strict

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 9 ·  December 15, 2025

Probability Weighting Meets Heavy Tails: An Econometric Framework for Behavioral Asset Pricing

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student’s $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004–2024), we demonstrate Student’s $t$ specifications outperform Gaussian models in

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8.5 ·  November 20, 2025

Binary Tree Option Pricing Under Market Microstructure Effects: A Random Forest Approach

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correl

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 6 ·  July 22, 2025

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