Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Robust valuation and optimal harvesting of forestry resources in the presence of catastrophe risk and parameter uncertainty

We determine forest lease value and optimal harvesting strategies under model parameter uncertainty within stochastic bio-economic models that account for catastrophe risk. Catastrophic events are modeled as a Poisson point process, with a two-factor stochastic convenience yield model capturing the

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 7.5 ·  February 7, 2025

Forecasting implied volatility surface with generative diffusion models

We introduce a conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) for generating arbitrage-free implied volatility (IV) surfaces, offering a more stable and accurate alternative to existing GAN-based approaches. To capture the path-dependent nature of volatility dynamics, our model is condit

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7 ·  November 10, 2025

Implied Volatility Expansions for VIX Options in Forward Variance Models

We develop closed-form expansions for the implied volatility of VIX options within the class of forward variance models. Our approach builds on weak-approximation techniques for VIX option prices and yields explicit implied volatility expansions with computable correction terms. The resulting formul

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  April 1, 2026

Efficient calibration of the shifted square-root diffusion model to credit default swap spreads using asymptotic approximations

We derive a closed-form approximation for the credit default swap (CDS) spread in the two-dimensional shifted square-root diffusion (SSRD) model using asymptotic coefficient expansion technique to approximate solutions of nonlinear partial differential equations. Specifically, we identify the Cauchy

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  October 3, 2024

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