Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Thinking Fast, Trading Late: System One Decision Models vs the Market

Large language models (LLMs) read company news at scale, and backtests suggest that their readings predict stock returns. We ask how much of that predictability survives a test that rules out look-ahead, memorization and selection. We propose OLIVIA, a protocol for such tests: point-in-time inputs w

Holy Grail Math 6 Rigor 9 Code ·  November 2, 2026

Large Language Model-Driven Small-Capitalization Trading: Integrating Financial News Sentiment, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Technical Signals

Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such signals into portfolio construction. We study an uncertainty-aware construction that feeds model-predicted risk – decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic com

Holy Grail Math 6 Rigor 8 ·  September 30, 2026

RiskReason: A Benchmark for Verifiable Financial Risk Reasoning

Robust financial-risk inference requires more than mathematical correctness. Models must accurately apply conditional rules, maintain evolving financial states, and make decisions that respect operational constraints. This work introduces RiskReason, a benchmark for verifiable financial-risk reasoni

Holy Grail Math 5 Rigor 6 ·  October 31, 2026

Increase Alpha: Performance and Risk of an AI-Driven Trading Framework

There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent networks with curated features to capture subtle regularities in

Street Traders Math 4 Rigor 6 ·  September 20, 2025

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