Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Kernel Learning for Mean-Variance Trading Strategies

In this article, we develop a kernel-based framework for constructing dynamic, pathdependent trading strategies under a mean-variance optimisation criterion. Building on the theoretical results of (Muca Cirone and Salvi, 2025), we parameterise trading strategies as functions in a reproducing kernel

Holy Grail Math 9.5 Rigor 8 ·  July 14, 2025

Non-parametric online market regime detection and regime clustering for multidimensional and path-dependent data structures

In this work we present a non-parametric online market regime detection method for multidimensional data structures using a path-wise two-sample test derived from a maximum mean discrepancy-based similarity metric on path space that uses rough path signatures as a feature map. The latter similarity

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  June 27, 2023

Uncertainty-Aware Strategies: A Model-Agnostic Framework for Robust Financial Optimization through Subsampling

This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the unavailability of the true probability measure forces reliance on

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7.2 ·  June 8, 2025

Scalable Signature-Based Distribution Regression via Reference Sets

Distribution Regression (DR) on stochastic processes describes the learning task of regression on collections of time series. Path signatures, a technique prevalent in stochastic analysis, have been used to solve the DR problem. Recent works have demonstrated the ability of such solutions to leverag

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 7 ·  October 11, 2024

SANOS Smooth strictly Arbitrage-free Non-parametric Option Surfaces

We present a simple, numerically efficient but highly flexible non-parametric method to construct representations of option price surfaces which are both smooth and strictly arbitrage-free across time and strike. The method can be viewed as a smooth generalization of the widely-known linear interpol

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  January 16, 2026

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