Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

A stochastic SIR model for cyber contagion: application to granular growth of firms and to insurance portfolio

This work evaluates the impact of contagious cyber-events, over a finite horizon, on firms’ financial health and on a cyber insurance portfolio. Our approach builds on key empirical findings from economics and cybersecurity. In economics, firm size and growth-rate distributions are non-Gaussian and

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 7 ·  March 16, 2026

A stochastic Gordon-Loeb model for optimal cybersecurity investment under clustered attacks

We develop a continuous-time stochastic model for optimal cybersecurity investment under the threat of cyberattacks. The arrival of attacks is modeled using a Hawkes process, capturing the empirically relevant feature of clustering in cyberattacks. Extending the Gordon-Loeb model, each attack may re

Lab Rats Math 8 Rigor 4.5 ·  May 2, 2025

Optimal investment and Pension policy in Pay-As-You-Go systems under forward utility and ageing population

This paper investigates optimal investment and pension policies in a Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) system supplemented by a buffer fund used as an intergenerational risk-sharing mechanism. The social planner’s preference criterion is represented by non-zero volatility forward Constant Relative Risk Aversion

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 4 ·  May 12, 2026

Disaster Risk Financing through Taxation: A Framework for Regional Participation in Collective Risk-Sharing

We consider an economy composed of different risk profile regions wishing to be hedged against a disaster risk using multi-region catastrophe insurance. Such catastrophic events inherently have a systemic component; we consider situations where the insurer faces a non-zero probability of insolvency.

Lab Rats Math 7 Rigor 3 ·  June 23, 2025

Multivariate Self-Exciting Processes with Dependencies

This paper introduces the class of multidimensional self-exciting processes with dependencies (MSPD), which is a unifying writing for a large class of processes: counting, loss, intensity, and also shifted processes. The framework takes into account dynamic dependencies between the frequency and the

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 1.5 ·  March 20, 2025

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