Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

A hidden Markov model for statistical arbitrage in international crude oil futures markets

In this work, we study statistical arbitrage strategies in international crude oil futures markets. We analyse strategies that extend classical pairs trading strategies, considering the two benchmark crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) together with the newly introduced Shanghai crude oil futures. We

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  September 2, 2023

The geometry of multi-curve interest rate models

We study the problems of consistency and of the existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type, generalizing the geometric approach developed by T. Björk and co-authors in the classical single-curve setting. We characterize when a multi-

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 4.5 ·  January 21, 2024

A stochastic Gordon-Loeb model for optimal cybersecurity investment under clustered attacks

We develop a continuous-time stochastic model for optimal cybersecurity investment under the threat of cyberattacks. The arrival of attacks is modeled using a Hawkes process, capturing the empirically relevant feature of clustering in cyberattacks. Extending the Gordon-Loeb model, each attack may re

Lab Rats Math 8 Rigor 4.5 ·  May 2, 2025

An extended CIR process with stochastic discontinuities

We study an extension of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process that incorporates jumps at deterministic dates, referred to as stochastic discontinuities. Our main motivation stems from short-rate modelling in the context of overnight rates, which often exhibit jumps at predetermined dates correspondi

Lab Rats Math 8 Rigor 2.5 ·  September 19, 2025

Real-world models for multiple term structures: a unifying HJM semimartingale framework

We develop a unified framework for modeling multiple term structures arising in financial, insurance, and energy markets, adopting an extended Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach under the real-world probability. We study market viability and characterize the set of local martingale deflators. We con

Lab Rats Math 9.5 Rigor 1 ·  November 4, 2024

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