Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Roughness Analysis of Realized Volatility and VIX through Randomized Kolmogorov-Smirnov Distribution

We introduce a novel distribution-based estimator for the Hurst parameter of log-volatility, leveraging the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to assess the scaling behavior of entire distributions rather than individual moments. To address the temporal dependence of financial volatility, we propose a ran

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7 ·  September 24, 2025

Fair Volatility: A Framework for Reconceptualizing Financial Risk

Volatility is the canonical measure of financial risk, a role largely inherited from Modern Portfolio Theory. Yet, its universality rests on restrictive efficiency assumptions that render volatility, at best, an incomplete proxy for true risk. This paper identifies three fundamental inconsistencies:

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 7 ·  September 23, 2025

From fair price to fair volatility: Towards an Efficiency-Consistent Definition of Financial Risk

Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most notably, the Markovian nature of price dynamics-that often fail t

Lab Rats Math 7.5 Rigor 3 ·  August 2, 2025

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