Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Modeling dependency between operational risk losses and macroeconomic variables using Hidden Markov Models

Predicting future operational risk losses gives rise to a significant challenge due to the heterogeneous and time-dependent structures present in real-world data. Furthermore, stress test exercises require examining the relationship with operational losses. To capture such relationship, we propose t

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  April 23, 2026

Resolving a Clearing Member's Default, A Radner Equilibrium Approach

For vanilla derivatives that constitute the bulk of investment banks’ hedging portfolios, central clearing through central counterparties (CCPs) has become hegemonic. A key mandate of a CCP is to provide an efficient and proper clearing member default resolution procedure. When a clearing member def

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 3 ·  October 4, 2023

Provisions and Economic Capital for Credit Losses

Based on supermodularity ordering properties, we show that convex risk measures of credit losses are nondecreasing w.r.t. credit-credit and, in a wrong-way risk setup, credit-market, covariances of elliptically distributed latent factors. These results support the use of such setups for computing cr

Lab Rats Math 8 Rigor 2.5 ·  January 15, 2024

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