Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Static marginal expected shortfall: Systemic risk measurement under dependence uncertainty

Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007–2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and best-case bounds for the marginal expected shortfall (MES) – a key

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 6 ·  April 28, 2025

Stochastic Loss Reserving: Dependence and Estimation

Nowadays insurers have to account for potentially complex dependence between risks. In the field of loss reserving, there are many parametric and non-parametric models attempting to capture dependence between business lines. One common approach has been to use additive background risk models (ABRMs)

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 5.5 ·  October 19, 2024

Dirichlet sub-mixtures: A new reading of multiplicative background risk models with Pareto margins

Multiplicative background risk models (MBRMs) provide a tractable framework for describing dependent risks. We construct a class of MBRMs with Pareto margins by combining Marshall–Olkin exponential and additive gamma risk factor structures, each allowed to incorporate idiosyncratic and systemic bac

Lab Rats Math 9 Rigor 2 ·  October 12, 2026

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