Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Can We Stop the Backtest Yet? Anytime-Valid Promotion Tests for Adaptive Financial Research Agents

Financial research agents can generate and monitor trading rules faster than a human can document the resulting selection process. Candidates appear at data-dependent times, weak rules are abandoned, and promising ones are watched until they cross a reporting threshold. We introduce PROMOTE, a proto

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8 ·  November 2, 2026

Re-evaluating Short- and Long-Term Trend Factors in CTA Replication: A Bayesian Graphical Approach

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have historically relied on trend-following rules that operate on vastly different horizons from long-term breakouts that capture major directional moves to short-term momentum signals that thrive in fast-moving markets. Despite a large body of work on trend followi

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7 ·  July 17, 2025

Revisiting the Structure of Trend Premia: When Diversification Hides Redundancy

Recent work has emphasized the diversification benefits of combining trend signals across multiple horizons, with the medium-term window-typically six months to one year-long viewed as the “sweet spot” of trend-following. This paper revisits this conventional view by reallocating exposure dynamicall

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 7.5 ·  October 27, 2025

Penalize the Common Trade: A Collision-Aware Layer for Learned Portfolios

Different learning systems can make nearly the same trade when they share data, objectives, or representations. The market then sees decision concentration even if the models look diverse. We call exposure to this shared direction a signal collision. A linear-impact game shows the basic externality:

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 7 ·  November 2, 2026

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