Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Reinforcement Learning in Queue-Reactive Models: Application to Optimal Execution

We investigate the use of Reinforcement Learning for the optimal execution of meta-orders, where the objective is to execute incrementally large orders while minimizing implementation shortfall and market impact over an extended period of time. Departing from traditional parametric approaches to pri

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 8 ·  November 19, 2025

CAESar: Conditional Autoregressive Expected Shortfall

In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR’s limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses this by providing the conditional expectation of such exceed

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8.5 ·  July 9, 2024

Deep Learning of Robust Market Making under Regime-Switching Order Flow

Classical market-making strategies based on stochastic control, such as the Avellaneda-Stoikov and the Guéant-Lehalle-Fernandez-Tapia (GLFT) extension, provide closed-form quoting rules, but rest on assumptions that break down at realistic microstructure timescales. One of them is that order flow is

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 8 ·  September 10, 2026

A high-frequency approach to Realized Risk Measures

We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and Halbleib by lifting the assumption of return self-similarity, wh

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  October 18, 2025

Deep reinforcement learning for optimal trading with partial information

Reinforcement Learning (RL) applied to financial problems has been the subject of a lively area of research. The use of RL for optimal trading strategies that exploit latent information in the market is, to the best of our knowledge, not widely tackled. In this paper we study an optimal trading prob

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 6 ·  October 31, 2025

Deviations from Tradition: Stylized Facts in the Era of DeFi

Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) are now a significant component of the financial world where billions of dollars are traded daily. Differently from traditional markets, which are typically based on Limit Order Books, DEXs typically work as Automated Market Makers, and, since the implementation of Uni

Street Traders Math 4.5 Rigor 8 ·  October 26, 2025

Predicting the success of new crypto-tokens: the Pump.fun case

We study the dynamics of token launched on Pump.fun, a Solana-based launchpad platform, to identify the determinants of the token success. Pump.fun employs a bonding curve mechanism to bootstrap initial liquidity possibly leading to graduation to the on-chain market, which can be seen as a token suc

Street Traders Math 3.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  February 16, 2026

A machine learning approach to support decision in insider trading detection

Identifying market abuse activity from data on investors’ trading activity is very challenging both for the data volume and for the low signal to noise ratio. Here we propose two complementary unsupervised machine learning methods to support market surveillance aimed at identifying potential insider

Street Traders Math 3.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  December 6, 2022

Tackling estimation risk in Kelly investing using options

The Kelly criterion provides a general framework for optimizing the growth rate of an investment portfolio over time by maximizing the expected logarithmic utility of wealth. However, the optimality condition of the Kelly criterion is highly sensitive to accurate estimates of the probabilities and i

Lab Rats Math 6.5 Rigor 2.5 ·  August 26, 2025

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