Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

CAESar: Conditional Autoregressive Expected Shortfall

In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR’s limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses this by providing the conditional expectation of such exceed

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8.5 ·  July 9, 2024

A high-frequency approach to Realized Risk Measures

We propose a new approach, termed Realized Risk Measures (RRM), to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high-frequency financial data. It extends the Realized Quantile (RQ) approach proposed by Dimitriadis and Halbleib by lifting the assumption of return self-similarity, wh

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  October 18, 2025

Deviations from Tradition: Stylized Facts in the Era of DeFi

Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) are now a significant component of the financial world where billions of dollars are traded daily. Differently from traditional markets, which are typically based on Limit Order Books, DEXs typically work as Automated Market Makers, and, since the implementation of Uni

Street Traders Math 4.5 Rigor 8 ·  October 26, 2025

Tempting the Agent: The Economics of Reputation without Persistent Identity in AI Agent Markets

Reputation is a fundamental mechanism through which markets sustain trust when service quality cannot be perfectly assessed ex ante, constituting a form of intertemporal economic capital by attracting future demand. Its effectiveness as a disciplinary mechanism depends not only on past interactions

Lab Rats Math 7 Rigor 3 ·  September 2, 2026

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