Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Behavioral Probability Weighting and Portfolio Optimization under Semi-Heavy Tails

This paper develops a unified framework that integrates behavioral distortions into rational portfolio optimization by extracting implied probability weighting functions (PWFs) from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and Normal-Inverse-Gaussian (NIG) return distributions. Using DJIA constitue

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 8 ·  July 6, 2025

Probability Weighting Meets Heavy Tails: An Econometric Framework for Behavioral Asset Pricing

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student’s $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004–2024), we demonstrate Student’s $t$ specifications outperform Gaussian models in

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8.5 ·  November 20, 2025

Multivariate Affine GARCH with Heavy Tails: A Unified Framework for Portfolio Optimization and Option Valuation

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the Heston-Nandi framework to a multivariate setting and apply it to 30 Do

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 7.5 ·  May 18, 2025

An Empirical Implementation of the Shadow Riskless Rate

We address the problem of asset pricing in a market where there is no risky asset. Previous work developed a theoretical model for a shadow riskless rate (SRR) for such a market in terms of the drift component of the state-price deflator for that asset universe. Assuming asset prices are modeled by

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 6.5 ·  November 11, 2024

Binary Tree Option Pricing Under Market Microstructure Effects: A Random Forest Approach

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correl

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 6 ·  July 22, 2025

Option pricing using a skew random walk pricing tree

Motivated by the Corns-Satchell, continuous time, option pricing model, we develop a binary tree pricing model with underlying asset price dynamics following Itô-Mckean skew Brownian motion. While the Corns-Satchell market model is incomplete, our discrete time market model is defined in the natural

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 5 ·  March 29, 2023

Dynamic Asset Pricing in a Unified Bachelier-Black-Scholes-Merton Model

We present a unified, market-complete model that integrates both the Bachelier and Black-Scholes-Merton frameworks for asset pricing. The model allows for the study, within a unified framework, of asset pricing in a natural world that experiences the possibility of negative security prices or riskle

Lab Rats Math 8 Rigor 3 ·  May 21, 2024

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