Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Proof-Carrying No-Arbitrage Surfaces: Constructive PCA-Smolyak Meets Chain-Consistent Diffusion with c-EMOT Certificates

We study the construction of SPX–VIX (multi\textendash product) option surfaces that are simultaneously free of static arbitrage and dynamically chain\textendash consistent across maturities. Our method unifies \emph{“constructive”} PCA–Smolyak approximation and a \emph{“chain\textendash consistent”

Holy Grail Math 9.2 Rigor 8.5 ·  November 12, 2025

A Risk-Neutral Neural Operator for Arbitrage-Free SPX-VIX Term Structures

We propose ARBITER, a risk-neutral neural operator for learning joint SPX-VIX term structures under no-arbitrage constraints. ARBITER maps market states to an operator that outputs implied volatility and variance curves while enforcing static arbitrage (calendar, vertical, butterfly), Lipschitz boun

Holy Grail Math 9 Rigor 8.5 ·  November 9, 2025

Risk-Sensitive Option Market Making with Arbitrage-Free eSSVI Surfaces: A Constrained RL and Stochastic Control Bridge

We formulate option market making as a constrained, risk-sensitive control problem that unifies execution, hedging, and arbitrage-free implied-volatility surfaces inside a single learning loop. A fully differentiable eSSVI layer enforces static no-arbitrage conditions (butterfly and calendar) while

Holy Grail Math 9.2 Rigor 7.8 ·  October 6, 2025

FR-LUX: Friction-Aware, Regime-Conditioned Policy Optimization for Implementable Portfolio Management

Transaction costs and regime shifts are major reasons why paper portfolios fail in live trading. We introduce FR-LUX (Friction-aware, Regime-conditioned Learning under eXecution costs), a reinforcement learning framework that learns after-cost trading policies and remains robust across volatility-li

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 8 ·  October 3, 2025

Tail-Safe Stochastic-Control SPX-VIX Hedging: A White-Box Bridge Between AI Sensitivities and Arbitrage-Free Market Dynamics

We present a white-box, risk-sensitive framework for jointly hedging SPX and VIX exposures under transaction costs and regime shifts. The approach couples an arbitrage-free market teacher with a control layer that enforces safety as constraints. On the market side, we integrate an SSVI-based implied

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 6.2 ·  October 9, 2025

Tail-Safe Hedging: Explainable Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with a White-Box CBF--QP Safety Layer in Arbitrage-Free Markets

We introduce Tail-Safe, a deployability-oriented framework for derivatives hedging that unifies distributional, risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with a white-box control-barrier-function (CBF) quadratic-program (QP) safety layer tailored to financial constraints. The learning component combines

Lab Rats Math 9.2 Rigor 4.5 ·  October 6, 2025

Law-Strength Frontiers and a No-Free-Lunch Result for Law-Seeking Reinforcement Learning on Volatility Law Manifolds

We study reinforcement learning (RL) on volatility surfaces through the lens of Scientific AI. We ask whether axiomatic no-arbitrage laws, imposed as soft penalties on a learned world model, can reliably align high-capacity RL agents, or mainly create Goodhart-style incentives to exploit model error

Lab Rats Math 9.5 Rigor 4 ·  November 21, 2025

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