Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

On the project risk baseline: integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling

Obtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more recently, financial limitations. The methods provide different

Street Traders Math 3.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  May 31, 2024

Impact of aleatoric, stochastic and epistemic uncertainties on project cost contingency reserves

In construction projects, contingency reserves have traditionally been estimated based on a percentage of the total project cost, which is arbitrary and, thus, unreliable in practical cases. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable estimation. However, works on this topic have focused exclusi

Street Traders Math 3.5 Rigor 6 ·  May 31, 2024

Project Risk Management from the bottom-up: Activity Risk Index

Project managers need to manage risks throughout the project lifecycle and, thus, need to know how changes in activity durations influence project duration and risk. We propose a new indicator (the Activity Risk Index, ARI) that measures the contribution of each activity to the total project risk wh

Philosophers Math 3.5 Rigor 4.5 ·  May 31, 2024

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