Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Structured SDEs for Realized GARCH: Continuous-Time Volatility Modelling and Component-Level Analysis

We propose a structured continuous-time stochastic volatility model for one-day-ahead integrated-variance forecasting. The model introduces a jointly evolving realized-measure state that feeds directly into latent variance dynamics, while correlated Brownian innovations capture return-linked depende

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 8 ·  October 13, 2026

Graph Signal Processing for Global Stock Market Realized Volatility Forecasting

This paper introduces an innovative realized volatility (RV) forecasting framework that extends the conventional Heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model via integrating Graph Signal Processing (GSP). The study first evaluates various constructions of volatility-interrelationship networks by analyzi

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  October 30, 2024

Global Stock Market Volatility Forecasting Incorporating Dynamic Graphs and All Trading Days

This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active trading days of different stock markets. The model employs a s

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  September 6, 2024

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