Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Amortized Neural Filtering for Calibrated Posteriors in Statistical Arbitrage

Statistical arbitrage trades on an estimate of the state of a residual spread, and conventional practice discards the uncertainty of that estimate. We keep the uncertainty and use it in the trading decision. A Neural Filter Estimator (NFE) is trained on simulated paths of a mean-reverting process wh

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8 Code ·  October 19, 2026

Conditionally Identifiable Latent Representation for Multivariate Time Series with Structural Dynamics

We propose the Identifiable Variational Dynamic Factor Model (iVDFM), which learns latent factors from multivariate time series with identifiability guarantees. By applying iVAE-style conditioning to the innovation process driving the dynamics rather than to the latent states, we show that factors a

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  March 24, 2026

Portfolio Optimization under Recursive Utility via Reinforcement Learning

We study whether a risk-sensitive objective from asset-pricing theory – recursive utility – improves reinforcement learning for portfolio allocation. The Bellman equation under recursive utility involves a certainty equivalent (CE) of future value that has no closed form under observed returns; we

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 6 ·  March 24, 2026

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