Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Jump risk premia in the presence of clustered jumps

This paper presents an option pricing model that incorporates clustered jumps using a bivariate Hawkes process. The process captures both self- and cross-excitation of positive and negative jumps, enabling the model to generate return dynamics with asymmetric, time-varying skewness and to produce po

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8 ·  October 24, 2025

Risk factor aggregation and stress testing

Stress testing refers to the application of adverse financial or macroeconomic scenarios to a portfolio. For this purpose, financial or macroeconomic risk factors are linked with asset returns, typically via a factor model. We expand the range of risk factors by adapting dimension-reduction techniqu

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  October 6, 2023

A Markov approach to credit rating migration conditional on economic states

We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain. While the rating process itself possesses the Markov property o

Lab Rats Math 7.5 Rigor 3 ·  March 21, 2024

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