Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Forecasting Tangency Portfolios and Investing in the Minimum Euclidean Distance Portfolio to Maximize Out-of-Sample Sharpe Ratios

We propose a novel model to achieve superior out-of-sample Sharpe ratios. While most research in asset allocation focuses on estimating the return vector and covariance matrix, the first component of our novel model instead forecasts the future tangency portfolio, and the second component then deter

Holy Grail Math 6 Rigor 6.5 ·  April 5, 2026

On the Structure of Risk Contribution: A Leave-One-Out Decomposition into Inherent and Correlation Risk

This paper develops a decomposition of standard Risk Contribution (RC) into two economically interpretable components: inherent risk and correlation risk. Using a leave-one-out representation, each position’s RC separates into a term reflecting its own volatility contribution independent of the port

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 6 ·  April 11, 2026

Asset allocation using a Markov process of clustered efficient frontier coefficients states

We propose a novel asset allocation model using a Markov process of states defined by clustered efficient frontier coefficients. While most research in Markov models of the market characterize regimes using return and volatility, we instead propose characterizing these states using efficient frontie

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  April 5, 2026

Measuring Strategy-Decay Risk: Minimum Regime Performance and the Durability of Systematic Investing

Systematic investment strategies are exposed to a subtle but pervasive vulnerability: the progressive erosion of their effectiveness as market regimes change. Traditional risk measures, designed to capture volatility or drawdowns, overlook this form of structural fragility. This article introduces a

Street Traders Math 4.5 Rigor 6.8 ·  April 9, 2026

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