Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Scaling Conditional Autoencoders for Portfolio Optimization via Uncertainty-Aware Factor Selection

Conditional Autoencoders (CAEs) offer a flexible, interpretable approach for estimating latent asset-pricing factors from firm characteristics. However, existing studies usually limit the latent factor dimension to around K=5 due to concerns that larger K can degrade performance. To overcome this ch

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 9 ·  November 21, 2025

High-Frequency Volatility Estimation with Fast Multiple Change Points Detection

We propose a method for constructing sparse high-frequency volatility estimators that are robust against change points in the spot volatility process. The estimators we propose are $\ell_1$-regularized versions of existing volatility estimators. We focus on power variation estimators as they represe

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 8 ·  March 19, 2023

Online Ensemble Learning for Sector Rotation: A Gradient-Free Framework

We propose a gradient-free online ensemble learning algorithm that dynamically combines forecasts from a heterogeneous set of machine learning models based on their recent predictive performance, measured by out-of-sample R-squared. The ensemble is model-agnostic, requires no gradient access, and is

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  March 30, 2023

A Unified Framework for Fast Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization

We introduce a unified framework for rapid, large-scale portfolio optimization that incorporates both shrinkage and regularization techniques. This framework addresses multiple objectives, including minimum variance, mean-variance, and the maximum Sharpe ratio, and also adapts to various portfolio w

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  March 22, 2023

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