Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Order-Flow Filtration and Directional Association with Short-Horizon Returns

Electronic markets generate dense order flow with many transient orders, which degrade directional signals derived from the limit order book (LOB). We study whether simple structural filters on order lifetime, modification count, and modification timing sharpen the association between order book imb

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8 ·  July 30, 2025

Multiperiod bond portfolio optimization with transaction costs using a Markov Decision process

Bank treasury portfolios must balance yield, liquidity, and interest-rate risk across bonds of different maturities. Static allocation rules are ill-suited to this task: portfolios concentrated in long-duration securities with no dynamic adjust- ment mechanism can accumulate large mark-to-market los

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 7 ·  September 30, 2026

Data-driven Approach for Static Hedging of Exchange Traded Options

This paper presents a data-driven interpretable machine learning algorithm for semi-static hedging of Exchange Traded options, considering transaction costs with efficient run-time. Further, we provide empirical evidence on the performance of hedging longer-term National Stock Exchange (NSE) Index o

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  February 1, 2023

Precision versus Shrinkage: A Comparative Analysis of Covariance Estimation Methods for Portfolio Allocation

In this paper, we perform a comprehensive study of different covariance and precision matrix estimation methods in the context of minimum variance portfolio allocation. The set of models studied by us can be broadly categorized as: Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) based methods, Shrinkage Methods, Thr

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  May 9, 2023

Event-Time Anchor Selection for Multi-Contract Quoting

When quoting across multiple contracts, the sequence of execution can be a key driver of implementation shortfall relative to the target spread~\cite{“bergault2022multi”}. We model the short-horizon execution risk from such quoting as variations in transaction prices between the initiation of the fi

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 7 ·  July 8, 2025

A neural network based model for multi-dimensional nonlinear Hawkes processes

This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit both mutually-exciting and inhibitive patterns. The NNNH app

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 6.5 ·  March 6, 2023

Robust Hedging of path-dependent options using a min-max algorithm

We consider an investor who wants to hedge a path-dependent option with maturity $T$ using a static hedging portfolio using cash, the underlying, and vanilla put/call options on the same underlying with maturity $ t_1$, where $0 < t_1 < T$. We propose a model-free approach to construct such a portfo

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 5 ·  November 2, 2025

Multi-period static hedging of European options

We consider the hedging of European options when the price of the underlying asset follows a single-factor Markovian framework. By working in such a setting, Carr and Wu \cite{carr2014static} derived a spanning relation between a given option and a continuum of shorter-term options written on the sa

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 5 ·  October 2, 2023

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