Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

The Limits of Complexity: Why Feature Engineering Beats Deep Learning in Investor Flow Prediction

The application of machine learning to financial prediction has accelerated dramatically, yet the conditions under which complex models outperform simple alternatives remain poorly understood. This paper investigates whether advanced signal processing and deep learning techniques can extract predict

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 9 ·  January 12, 2026

Optimal Signal Extraction from Order Flow: A Matched Filter Perspective on Normalization and Market Microstructure

We demonstrate that the choice of normalization for order flow intensity is fundamental to signal extraction in finance, not merely a technical detail. Through theoretical modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, and empirical validation using Korean market data, we prove that market capitalization normali

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8 ·  December 21, 2025

The Physics of Price Discovery: Deconvolving Information, Volatility, and the Critical Breakdown of Signal during Retail Herding

How information transmits through prices – and why this transmission breaks down – remains poorly understood. We combine regularized deconvolution with Hawkes process analysis to study the impulse response structure of investor flows in the Korean equity market (January 2020 – February 2025). Thr

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8.5 ·  January 8, 2026

Information Propagation Across Investor Types: Transfer Entropy Networks in the Korean Equity Market

Whether heterogeneous investor flows transmit private information across stocks or merely reflect coordinated responses to public signals remains an open question in market microstructure. We construct Transfer Entropy (TE) networks from investor-type flows – foreign, institutional, and individual

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  March 15, 2026

When the Rules Change: Adaptive Signal Extraction via Kalman Filtering and Markov-Switching Regimes

Most empirical microstructure research assumes that order flow–return parameters are constant, yet these relationships shift substantially across market regimes. Combining adaptive Kalman filtering, Markov-switching regime identification, and asymmetric response estimation, we characterize regime-d

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  January 9, 2026

Sources and Nonlinearity of High Volume Return Premium: An Empirical Study on the Differential Effects of Investor Identity versus Trading Intensity (2020-2024)

Chae and Kang (2019, \textit{“Pacific-Basin Finance Journal”}) documented a puzzling Low Volume Return Premium (LVRP) in Korea – contradicting global High Volume Return Premium (HVRP) evidence. We resolve this puzzle. Using Korean market data (2020-2024), we demonstrate that HVRP exists in Korea but

Street Traders Math 3 Rigor 8 ·  December 16, 2025

Using a Deep Learning Model to Simulate Human Stock Trader's Methods of Chart Analysis

Despite the efficient market hypothesis, many studies suggest the existence of inefficiencies in the stock market leading to the development of techniques to gain above-market returns. Systematic trading has undergone significant advances in recent decades with deep learning schemes emerging as a po

Street Traders Math 3.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  April 28, 2023

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