Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

The Three-Dimensional Decomposition of Volatility Memory

This paper develops a three-dimensional decomposition of volatility memory into orthogonal components of level, shape, and tempo. The framework unifies regime-switching, fractional-integration, and business-time approaches within a single canonical representation that identifies how each dimension g

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 8 ·  December 1, 2025

Behavioral Probability Weighting and Portfolio Optimization under Semi-Heavy Tails

This paper develops a unified framework that integrates behavioral distortions into rational portfolio optimization by extracting implied probability weighting functions (PWFs) from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and Normal-Inverse-Gaussian (NIG) return distributions. Using DJIA constitue

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 8 ·  July 6, 2025

Probability Weighting Meets Heavy Tails: An Econometric Framework for Behavioral Asset Pricing

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student’s $t$ distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004–2024), we demonstrate Student’s $t$ specifications outperform Gaussian models in

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8.5 ·  November 20, 2025

Multivariate Affine GARCH with Heavy Tails: A Unified Framework for Portfolio Optimization and Option Valuation

This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the Heston-Nandi framework to a multivariate setting and apply it to 30 Do

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 7.5 ·  May 18, 2025

Implied Probabilities and Volatility in Credit Risk: A Merton-Based Approach with Binomial Trees

We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm’s asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages: first, we calibrate the asset volatility using the Black-Scholes

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7 ·  June 15, 2025

An Empirical Implementation of the Shadow Riskless Rate

We address the problem of asset pricing in a market where there is no risky asset. Previous work developed a theoretical model for a shadow riskless rate (SRR) for such a market in terms of the drift component of the state-price deflator for that asset universe. Assuming asset prices are modeled by

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 6.5 ·  November 11, 2024

Hedging via Perpetual Derivatives: Trinomial Option Pricing and Implied Parameter Surface Analysis

We introduce a fairly general, recombining trinomial tree model in the natural world. Market-completeness is ensured by considering a market consisting of two risky assets, a riskless asset, and a European option. The two risky assets consist of a stock and a perpetual derivative of that stock. The

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 6.5 ·  October 7, 2024

Binary Tree Option Pricing Under Market Microstructure Effects: A Random Forest Approach

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correl

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 6 ·  July 22, 2025

An Axiomatic Risk-Reward Framework for Sustainable Investing

Continued interest in sustainable investing calls for an axiomatic approach to measures of risk and reward that focus not only on financial returns, but also on measures of environmental and social sustainability, i.e. environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores. We propose definitions for ES

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 5.5 ·  September 11, 2023

Option pricing using a skew random walk pricing tree

Motivated by the Corns-Satchell, continuous time, option pricing model, we develop a binary tree pricing model with underlying asset price dynamics following Itô-Mckean skew Brownian motion. While the Corns-Satchell market model is incomplete, our discrete time market model is defined in the natural

Holy Grail Math 7 Rigor 5 ·  March 29, 2023

Dynamic Asset Pricing in a Unified Bachelier-Black-Scholes-Merton Model

We present a unified, market-complete model that integrates both the Bachelier and Black-Scholes-Merton frameworks for asset pricing. The model allows for the study, within a unified framework, of asset pricing in a natural world that experiences the possibility of negative security prices or riskle

Lab Rats Math 8 Rigor 3 ·  May 21, 2024

Unifying Market Microstructure and Dynamic Asset Pricing

We introduce a discrete binary tree for pricing contingent claims with the underlying security prices exhibiting history dependence characteristic of that induced by market microstructure phenomena. Example dependencies considered include moving average or autoregressive behavior. Our model is marke

Lab Rats Math 6.5 Rigor 2.5 ·  April 5, 2023

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