Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Forecasting and Backtesting Gradient Allocations of Expected Shortfall

Capital allocation is a procedure for quantifying the contribution of each source of risk to aggregated risk. The gradient allocation rule, also known as the Euler principle, is a prevalent rule of capital allocation under which the allocated capital captures the diversification benefit of the margi

Holy Grail Math 8 Rigor 8.5 ·  January 22, 2024

Tail risk forecasting with semi-parametric regression models by incorporating overnight information

This research incorporates realized volatility and overnight information into risk models, wherein the overnight return often contributes significantly to the total return volatility. Extending a semi-parametric regression model based on asymmetric Laplace distribution, we propose a family of RES-CA

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  February 11, 2024

Robust risk evaluation of joint life insurance under dependence uncertainty

Dependence among multiple lifetimes is a key factor for pricing and evaluating the risk of joint life insurance products. The dependence structure can be exposed to model uncertainty when available data and information are limited. We address robust pricing and risk evaluation of joint life insuranc

Lab Rats Math 8 Rigor 4 ·  October 2, 2025

Tail copula representation of path-based maximal tail dependence

The classical tail dependence coefficient (TDC) may fail to capture non-exchangeable features of tail dependence due to its restrictive focus on the diagonal of the underlying copula. To address this limitation, the framework of path-based maximal tail dependence has been proposed, where a path of m

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 2 ·  April 7, 2026

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