Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

An Efficient Calibration Framework for Volatility Derivatives under Rough Volatility with Jumps

We present a fast and robust calibration method for stochastic volatility models that admit Fourier-analytic transform-based pricing via characteristic functions. The design is structure-preserving: we keep the original pricing transform and (i) split the pricing formula into data-independent inte-

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7 ·  October 21, 2025

Adaptive VaR Control for Standardized Option Books under Marking Frictions

Short-horizon risk control matters for hedging and capital allocation. Yet existing Value-at-Risk studies rarely address standardized option books or the next-day valuation frictions that arise in derivatives data. This paper develops a framework for tail-risk control in standardized option books. T

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  April 3, 2026

Proxy-Reliance Control in Conformal Recalibration of One-Sided Value-at-Risk

We introduce a proxy-reliance-controlled conformal recalibration framework for one-sided Value-at-Risk (VaR), and study a question that existing state-aware methods do not usually isolate: how strongly should the recalibration adjustment depend on an imperfect volatility proxy? We formalize this thr

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  March 23, 2026

Risk-Sensitive Specialist Routing for Volatility Forecasting

Volatility forecasting becomes challenging when market conditions shift and model performance varies across market states. Motivated by this instability, we develop a risk-sensitive specialist routing framework for ETF volatility forecasting. The framework uses online risk-sensitive evaluation and s

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  April 12, 2026

Reliability-Aware ETF Tail-Risk Monitoring

Daily ETF risk monitoring can become unreliable when market data quality degrades, market conditions shift, or predictive performance becomes unstable. This paper develops a reliability-aware risk monitoring service for next-day tail-risk surveillance. The proposed framework combines service-time qu

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  April 9, 2026

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