Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Metaorder modelling and identification from public data

Market-order flow in financial markets exhibits long-range correlations. This is a widely known stylised fact of financial markets. A popular hypothesis for this stylised fact comes from the Lillo-Mike-Farmer (LMF) order-splitting theory. However, quantitative tests of this theory have historically

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  February 23, 2026

The bias of IID resampled backtests for rolling-window mean-variance portfolios

Backtests on historical data are the basis for practical evaluations of portfolio selection rules, but their reliability is often limited by reliance on a single sample path. This can lead to high estimation variance. Resampling techniques offer a potential solution by increasing the effective sampl

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 6 ·  May 9, 2025

Many learning agents interacting with an agent-based market model

We consider the dynamics and the interactions of multiple reinforcement learning optimal execution trading agents interacting with a reactive Agent-Based Model (ABM) of a financial market in event time. The model represents a market ecology with 3-trophic levels represented by: optimal execution lea

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 6 ·  March 13, 2023

A Finite Bid--Ask Spread from Replenishment Displaced from the Quote

We give a unified analytic account of a finite bid–ask spread in a two-field reaction–diffusion order book. The model retains separate bid and ask densities in operational time, with diffusion, cancellation, reaction and external order creation. On the symmetric equal-coefficient branch, the imbal

Lab Rats Math 9 Rigor 2 ·  October 6, 2026

Non-unique time and market incompleteness

Financial markets are often modelled as if time were unique and continuous across assets and markets. Financial markets are however asynchronous, order flow is event-driven, and waiting times between events are often random. Many of the most influential formulations of financial market models presup

Lab Rats Math 6.5 Rigor 2 ·  April 1, 2026

Epistemic Limits of Empirical Finance: Causal Reductionism and Self-Reference

The clarion call for causal reduction in the study of capital markets is intensifying. However, in self-referencing and open systems such as capital markets, the idea of unidirectional causation (if applicable) may be limiting at best, and unstable or fallacious at worst. In this work, we critically

Philosophers Math 3.5 Rigor 2.5 ·  November 28, 2023

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