Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Kronos: A Foundation Model for the Language of Financial Markets

The success of large-scale pre-training paradigm, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), has inspired the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). However, their application to financial candlestick (K-line) data remains limited, often underperforming non-pre-trained architectures

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 9 Code ·  August 2, 2025

Microstructural Foundation of Rough Log-Normal Volatility Models

We establish a microstructural foundation of the rough Bergomi model. Specifically, we consider a sequence of order driven financial market models where orders to buy or sell an asset arrive according to a Poisson process and have a long lasting impact on volatility. Using a recently established C-t

Lab Rats Math 9.2 Rigor 2.5 ·  March 13, 2026

Convergence of Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes and the Microstructure of Rough Volatility

We establish the weak convergence of the intensity of a nearly-unstable Hawkes process with heavy-tailed kernel. Our result is used to derive a scaling limit for a financial market model where orders to buy or sell an asset arrive according to a Hawkes process with power-law kernel. After suitable r

Lab Rats Math 9.5 Rigor 2 ·  December 14, 2023

A Hawkes Microfoundation for Multitype Inverse Gaussian Subordinators

We provide an event-level Hawkes microfoundation for a multitype inverse-Gaussian stochastic clock. We show that the event counts and integrated intensities of nearly critical multivariate linear Hawkes processes converge jointly to a multivariate pure-jump subordinator when reproduction delays have

Lab Rats Math 9 Rigor 2 ·  October 7, 2026

Path-dependent Fractional Volterra Equations and the Microstructure of Rough Volatility Models driven by Poisson Random Measures

We consider a microstructure foundation for rough volatility models driven by Poisson random measures. In our model the volatility is driven by self-exciting arrivals of market orders as well as self-exciting arrivals of limit orders and cancellations. The impact of market order on future order arri

Lab Rats Math 9 Rigor 2 ·  December 21, 2024

Functional Limit Theorems for Hawkes Processes

We prove that the long-run behavior of Hawkes processes is fully determined by the average number and the dispersion of child events. For subcritical processes we provide FLLNs and FCLTs under minimal conditions on the kernel of the process with the precise form of the limit theorems depending stron

Lab Rats Math 9.5 Rigor 1.5 ·  January 21, 2024

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