Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

Bayesian Distributionally Robust Merton Problem with Nonlinear Wasserstein Projections

We revisit Merton’s continuous-time portfolio selection through a data-driven, distributionally robust lens. Our aim is to tap the benefits of frequent trading over short horizons while acknowledging that drift is hard to pin down, whereas volatility can be screened using realized or implied measure

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  December 1, 2025

Robust distortion riskmetrics under Wasserstein ambiguity

Risk evaluation under distributional ambiguity is central to decision making in finance, economics, and operations research. Wasserstein balls provide a natural way to describe uncertainty around a reference distribution. We solve a natural yet open problem of robust optimization for the class of di

Holy Grail Math 9 Rigor 6 ·  October 7, 2026

Robust Bayesian Dynamic Programming for On-policy Risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning

We propose a novel framework for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RSRL) that incorporates robustness against transition uncertainty. We define two distinct yet coupled risk measures: an inner risk measure addressing state and cost randomness and an outer risk measure capturing transition dynam

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 6 ·  December 31, 2025

Stochastic Dominance Constrained Optimization with S-shaped Utilities: Poor-Performance-Region Algorithm and Neural Network

We investigate the static portfolio selection problem of S-shaped and non-concave utility maximization under first-order and second-order stochastic dominance (SD) constraints. In many S-shaped utility optimization problems, one should require a liquidation boundary to guarantee the existence of a f

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 6 ·  November 29, 2025

PSAHARA Utility Family: Modeling Non-monotone Risk Aversion and Convex Compensation in Incomplete Markets

In hedge funds, convex compensation schemes are adopted to stimulate a high-profit performance for portfolio managers. In economics, non-monotone risk aversion is proposed to argue that individuals may not be risk-averse when the wealth level is low. Combining these two ingredients, we study the opt

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 6 ·  June 1, 2024

Weighted Generalized Risk Measure and Risk Quadrangle: Characterization, Optimization and Application

Various financial market scenarios may cause heterogeneous risk assessments among analysts, which motivates the usage of the Generalized Risk Measure in Fadina et al. (2024, Finance and Stochastics). Effectively synthesizing these diverse assessments avoids over-relying on a single, potentially flaw

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 6.5 ·  March 11, 2026

Duality and Policy Evaluation in Distributionally Robust Bayesian Diffusion Control

We consider a Bayesian diffusion control problem of expected terminal utility maximization. The controller imposes a prior distribution on the unknown drift of an underlying diffusion. The Bayesian optimal control, tracking the posterior distribution of the unknown drift, can be characterized explic

Holy Grail Math 9 Rigor 5 ·  June 24, 2025

Risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning Based on Convex Scoring Functions

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency is

Holy Grail Math 8.5 Rigor 5 ·  May 7, 2025

Asymptotics of Systemic Risk in a Renewal Model with Multiple Business Lines and Heterogeneous Claims

Systemic risk is receiving increasing attention in the insurance industry. In this paper, we propose a multi-dimensional Lévy process-based renewal risk model with heterogeneous insurance claims, where every dimension indicates a business line of an insurer. We use the systemic expected shortfall (S

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 3.5 ·  September 30, 2024

Value-at-Risk- and Expectile-based Systemic Risk Measures and Second-order Asymptotics: With Applications to Diversification

The systemic risk measure plays a crucial role in analyzing individual losses conditioned on extreme system-wide disasters. In this paper, we provide a unified asymptotic treatment for systemic risk measures. First, we classify them into two families of Value-at-Risk- (VaR-) and expectile-based syst

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 3 ·  April 27, 2024

Anonymized risk sharing

Anonymized risk sharing requires no information about agents’ preferences, identities, private operations, or realized losses. It is especially relevant in the digital economy, with applications such as P2P health-care insurance, revenue sharing for digital music and videos, and blockchain mining po

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 2 ·  October 1, 2026

Resisting Manipulative Bots in Memecoin Copy Trading: A Multi-Agent Approach with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

The launch of $Trump coin ignited a wave in meme coin investment. Copy trading, as a strategy-agnostic approach that eliminates the need for deep trading knowledge, quickly gains widespread popularity in the meme coin market. However, copy trading is not a guarantee of profitability due to the preva

Street Traders Math 2 Rigor 6 ·  January 13, 2026

Extended Convolution Bounds on the Fréchet Problem: Robust Risk Aggregation and Risk Sharing

In this paper, we provide extended convolution bounds for the Fréchet problem and discuss related implications in quantitative risk management. First, we establish a new form of inequality for the Range-Value-at-Risk (RVaR). Based on this inequality, we obtain bounds for robust risk aggregation with

Lab Rats Math 8.5 Rigor 1.5 ·  November 26, 2025

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