Papers, ranked by score

Ordered by a blend of empirical rigor (60%) and math complexity (40%).

A Motif-Based Framework for Decomposing Risk Spillovers

Connectedness measures quantify aggregate risk spillovers but obscure the local interaction patterns that generate systemic risk. We develop a motif-based framework that first extracts multiscale backbones from quantile connectedness networks and then identifies directed triadic motifs whose frequen

Holy Grail Math 7.5 Rigor 8 ·  April 28, 2026

Russia-Ukraine conflict and the quantile return connectedness of grain futures in the BRICS and international markets

This study investigates quantile-based connectedness among BRICS and international grain futures around the Russia-Ukraine conflict and milestones of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Using a dynamic quantile VAR combined with a frequency-domain decomposition, we trace spillovers across market states

Holy Grail Math 6.5 Rigor 8 ·  September 28, 2024

Dynamic spillovers and investment strategies across artificial intelligence ETFs, artificial intelligence tokens, and green markets

This paper investigates the risk spillovers among AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets using the R2 decomposition method. We reveal several key insights. First, the overall transmission connectedness index (TCI) closely aligns with the contemporaneous TCI, while the lagged TCI is significantly lowe

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  March 3, 2025

Contemporaneous and lagged spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and climate change

In this paper, we examine the dynamic spillovers among the crude oil, carbon emission allowance, climate change, and agricultural markets. Adopting a novel $R^2$ decomposed connectedness approach, our empirical analysis reveals several key findings. The overall TCI dynamics have been mainly dominate

Holy Grail Math 5.5 Rigor 7.5 ·  August 19, 2024

Risk spillovers between the BRICS and the U.S. staple grain futures markets

This study examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets. The results show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate, while net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS marke

Street Traders Math 4.5 Rigor 7 ·  December 20, 2024

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