Advance Detection Of Bull And Bear Phases In Cryptocurrency Markets

ArXiv ID: 2411.13586 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed towards. As of today Bitcoin has a market dominance of close to 50 percent. Bull and bear phases in cryptocurrencies are determined based on the performance of Bitcoin over the 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages. The aim of this paper is to foretell the performance of bitcoin in the near future by employing predictive algorithms. This predicted data will then be used to calculate the 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages and subsequently plotted to establish the potential bull and bear phases.

Keywords: Bitcoin Prediction, Moving Averages, Cryptocurrency Trading, Market Phases, Predictive Algorithms, Cryptocurrencies

Complexity vs Empirical Score

• Math Complexity: 3.5/10
• Empirical Rigor: 6.0/10
• Quadrant: Street Traders
• Why: The paper uses basic ML techniques (linear regression, LSTM) and standard technical indicators, resulting in low mathematical complexity. However, it details data collection, preprocessing, and model validation on real cryptocurrency data, indicating a practical, implementation-focused approach.

  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal: Predict<br>Bitcoin Market Phases"] --> B["Data Input:<br>Historical Bitcoin Price Data"]
    B --> C["Computational Process:<br>Apply Predictive Algorithms"]
    C --> D["Generate Forecast:<br>Future Bitcoin Price Data"]
    D --> E["Compute Technical Indicators:<br>50 & 200 Day Moving Averages"]
    E --> F["Define Market Phases:<br>Bull & Bear Phase Detection"]
    F --> G["Key Outcome:<br>Advance Detection of<br>Bull and Bear Markets"]