Analyzing Economic Convergence Across the Americas: A Survival Analysis Approach to GDP per Capita Trajectories

ArXiv ID: 2404.04282 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). A comparative investigation reveals that DeepSurv is proficient at capturing non-linear interactions, although standard models exhibit comparable performance under certain circumstances. The weight matrix evaluates the economic ramifications of vulnerabilities, risks, and capacities. In order to meet the GDPpc objective, the findings emphasize the need of a balanced approach to risk-taking, strategic vulnerability reduction, and investment in governmental capacities and social cohesiveness. Policy guidelines promote individualized approaches that take into account the complex dynamics at play while making decisions.

Keywords: Survival Analysis, Deep Learning, Economic Vulnerability, GDP Prediction, Risk Management, Macro

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 5.0/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 4.0/10
  • Quadrant: Lab Rats
  • Why: The paper uses advanced statistical methods like survival analysis and DeepSurv, indicating moderate math complexity, but lacks direct backtesting or quant finance implementation details, resulting in lower empirical rigor for trading applications.
  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal<br/>Analyze economic convergence<br/>& GDP per capita trajectories<br/>(2013-2022)"] --> B["Data & Inputs<br/>PPP-adjusted GDPpc<br/>Economic Vulnerabilities<br/>Risks & Capacities"]
    B --> C["Methodology<br/>Survival Analysis +<br/>Machine Learning<br/>(DeepSurv & Standard Models)"]
    C --> D["Computational Process<br/>Time-to-event modeling<br/>Non-linear interaction capture<br/>Weight Matrix Evaluation"]
    D --> E["Key Findings<br/>DeepSurv captures complexity<br/>Balanced risk-vulnerability-investment strategy<br/>Policy needs tailored approaches"]