Are State Public Pensions Sustainable? Why the Federal Government Should Worry About State Pension Liabilities

ArXiv ID: ssrn-1596679 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

This paper analyzes the flow of state pension benefit payments relative to asset levels and contributions. Assuming future state contributions fund the full pre

Keywords: Pension Funds, Asset Liability Management, State Pensions, Solvency, Defined Benefit Plans, Fixed Income

Complexity vs Empirical Score

• Math Complexity: 3.0/10
• Empirical Rigor: 7.0/10
• Quadrant: Street Traders
• Why: The paper uses straightforward present value calculations and scenario analysis based on state-reported data rather than advanced mathematical derivations, but it is heavily data-driven, relying on extensive actuarial and financial data from state pension reports to produce specific numerical forecasts and state-by-state outcomes.

  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal: Assess State Pension Sustainability<br> & Asset Liability Management"] --> B["Data Inputs: State Pension Fund<br>Benefit Payments, Asset Levels, Contributions"]
    B --> C["Computational Process:<br>Stochastic Modeling of Asset Liability Mismatch"]
    C --> D["Key Finding: Insufficient Contributions<br>to Fund Full Future Benefits"]
    D --> E["Outcome: Solvency Risk Identified<br>Requiring Federal Policy Attention"]