Paper: arXiv 2512.16411

Authors: Matthieu Garcin, Louis Perot

Abstract

Relative entropy, as a divergence metric between two distributions, can be used for offline change-point detection and extends classical methods that mainly rely on moment-based discrepancies. To build a statistical test suitable for this context, we study the distribution of empirical relative entropy and derive several types of approximations: concentration inequalities for finite samples, asymptotic distributions, and Berry-Esseen bounds in a pre-asymptotic regime. For the latter, we introduce a new approach to obtain Berry-Esseen inequalities for nonlinear functions of sum statistics under some convexity assumptions. Our theoretical contributions cover both one- and two-sample empirical relative entropies. We then detail a change-point detection procedure built on relative entropy and compare it, through extensive simulations, with classical methods based on moments or on information criteria. Finally, we illustrate its practical relevance on two real datasets involving temperature series and volatility of stock indices.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 8.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 6.0/10
  • Quadrant: Holy Grail — high math complexity, high empirical rigor

Why this score: The paper is mathematically dense, featuring theoretical contributions like Berry-Esseen bounds and concentration inequalities for nonlinear functions of sum statistics, indicating high math complexity. It also demonstrates empirical rigor through extensive simulations comparing the method to baselines and applications to real-world datasets (temperature and volatility series), making it backtest-ready.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
  G["Research Goal:<br>Distribution of Empirical Relative Entropy for Change-Point Detection"] --> M["Methodology:<br>Derive Concentration Inequalities, Asymptotic Distributions, and Berry-Esseen Bounds"]
  M --> C["Computational Process:<br>Simulation of Offline Change-Point Detection Procedure"]
  C --> D["Data/Inputs:<br>Temperature Series &<br>Stock Market Volatility"]
  C --> E["Comparisons:<br>Moment-based &<br>Information Criterion Methods"]
  D & E --> F["Key Findings/Outcomes:<br>Theoretical Bounds & Practical Efficacy in Detecting Changes"]