Paper: arXiv 2603.00422

Authors: Harrison Katz

Abstract

Tourism demand forecasting is methodologically mature, but it typically treats accommodation supply as fixed or exogenous. In platform-mediated short-term rentals, supply is elastic, decision-driven, and co-evolves with demand through pricing, information design, and interventions. I reframe the core issue as endogenous stock-out censoring: realized booked nights satisfy B_{k,t} <= min(D_{k,t}, S_{k,t}), so booking models that ignore supply learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile under policy changes and supply shocks. This narrated review synthesizes work from tourism forecasting, revenue management, two-sided market economics, and Bayesian time-series methods; develops a three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention); and illustrates the identification failure with a toy simulation. I conclude with a focused research agenda for jointly forecasting supply, demand, and their compositions.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 3.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 3.0/10
  • Quadrant: Philosophers — conceptual discussion, limited math and data

Why this score: This paper presents a strong, highly clear conceptual review and theoretical framework addressing endogenous supply-demand coupling in platform accommodation markets. While it effectively identifies structural limitations in current demand-only forecasting models, the excerpt provided is primarily conceptual with low mathematical depth and minimal empirical validation beyond a toy simulation.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
    A[Research Goal: Address Endogenous Stock-Out Censoring in STR Markets] --> B[Data Inputs: Historical Bookings, Price, Capacity & Market Policies]
    B --> C[Methodology: Synthesize Tourism, Revenue Mgmt & Bayesian Time-Series]
    C --> D[Toy Simulation: Modeling B_kt = min D_kt, S_kt]
    D --> E[Develop Framework: Behavioral, Informational & Intervention Coupling]
    E --> F[Findings: Supply-Agnostic Models Fail Under Shocks & Policy Changes]
    F --> G[Outcome: Agenda for Jointly Forecasting Supply, Demand & Composition]

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4 of 114 cited works are in the corpus; resolved via arXiv source bundles, Semantic Scholar and OpenAlex. Corpus-wide: 2518 linked papers.