Detecting Structural breakpoints in natural gas and electricity wholesale prices via Bayesian ensemble approach, in the era of energy prices turmoil of 2022 period: the cases of ten European markets

ArXiv ID: 2410.07224 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

We investigate the impact of several critical events associated with the Russo Ukrainian war, started officially on 24 February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on ten European electricity markets, two natural gas markets (the European reference trading hub TTF and N.Y. NGNMX market) and how these markets interact to each other and with USDRUB exchange rate, a financial market. We analyze the reactions of these markets, manifested as breakpoints attributed to these critical events, and their interaction, by using a set of three tools that can shed light on different aspects of this complex situation. We combine the concepts of market efficiency, measured by quantifying the Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) via rolling Hurst exponent, with structural breakpoints occurred in the time series of gas, electricity and financial markets, the detection of which is possible by using a Bayesian ensemble approach, the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Seasonal change and Trend (BEAST), a powerful tool that can effectively detect structural breakpoints, trends, seasonalities and sudden abrupt changes in time series. The results show that the analyzed markets have exhibited different modes of reactions to the critical events, both in respect of number, nature, and time of occurrence (leading, lagging, concurrent with dates of critical events) of breakpoints as well as of the dynamic behavior of their trend components.

Keywords: structural breakpoints, Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Hurst exponent, market efficiency, Energy & Commodities

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 7.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 8.0/10
  • Quadrant: Holy Grail
  • Why: The paper employs advanced statistical methods like Bayesian Ensemble (BEAST) and Partial Mutual Information with Mixed Embedding (PMIME), indicating high mathematical sophistication, while it uses extensive real-world market data, backtests the findings on structural breaks, and implements the methodology in a data-heavy empirical study of European energy markets.
  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal: <br>Detect structural breakpoints & <br>analyze market interactions in <br>10 European energy markets <br>during 2022 energy crisis"] --> B["Data Collection: <br>Wholesale prices: 10 European electricity markets, <br>TTF & NY Natural Gas, USDRUB exchange rate <br>Period: 2022 critical events"]
    
    B --> C["Methodology: <br>Bayesian Ensemble Approach <br>(BEAST + Rolling Hurst)"]
    
    C --> D["Computational Process: <br>1. Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, <br>Seasonal change and Trend (BEAST) <br>2. Rolling Hurst Exponent <br>3. Cross-market correlation analysis"]
    
    D --> E["Key Findings: <br>- Different reaction modes per market <br>- Varying breakpoints: number, nature, timing <br>- Leading/lagging/concurrent responses <br>- Dynamic trend behaviors <br>- Market interaction patterns"]