Forecasting the Price of Rice in Banda Aceh after Covid-19

ArXiv ID: 2411.15228 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

This research aims to predict the price of rice in Banda Aceh after the occurrence of Covid-19. The last observation carried forward (LOCF) imputation technique has been used to solve the problem of missing values from this research data. Furthermore, the technique used to forecast rice prices in Banda Aceh is auto-ARIMA which is the best ARIMA model based on AIC, AICC, or BIC values. The results of this research show that the ARIMA model (0,0,5) is the best model to predict the prices of lower quality rice I (BKB1), lower quality rice II (BKB2), medium quality rice I (BKM1), medium quality rice II (BKM2), super quality rice I (BKS1), and super quality rice II (BKS2). Based on this model, the results of forecasting rice prices for all qualities show that there was a decline for some time (between September 1, 2023 and September 6, 2023) and then remained constant (between September 6, 2023 and December 31, 2023).

Keywords: Auto-ARIMA, Time series forecasting, Missing value imputation, AIC/BIC criteria, Price prediction, Commodities

Complexity vs Empirical Score

• Math Complexity: 3.0/10
• Empirical Rigor: 6.0/10
• Quadrant: Street Traders
• Why: The paper uses relatively simple ARIMA models with basic formulae and no advanced mathematical derivations, but it applies standard backtesting practices with a real dataset, imputation techniques, and explicit forecasting results, making it highly practical for implementation.

  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal:<br>Predict Rice Prices in Banda Aceh<br>Post-COVID-19"] --> B["Data Preprocessing:<br>LOCF Imputation for Missing Values"]
    B --> C["Model Selection:<br>Auto-ARIMA Optimization<br>(Minimizing AIC/BIC)"]
    C --> D["Model Identified:<br>ARIMA(0,0,5)"]
    D --> E["Forecasting Results"]
    
    subgraph E ["Forecasting Results"]
        F["Price Decline:<br>Sep 1 - Sep 6, 2023"]
        G["Price Stabilization:<br>Sep 6 - Dec 31, 2023"]
        H["Applies to all rice qualities<br>(BKB1, BKB2, BKM1, BKM2, BKS1, BKS2)"]
    end
    
    E --> I["Outcome:<br>Reliable price forecasts<br>for economic planning"]