Paper: arXiv 2609.16642

Authors: Maksym Nechepurenko

Abstract

Public evidence can become sufficient to settle a prediction-market contract before the venue records its first determination, but the relevant boundary depends on the applicable rule version, exact release object, source hierarchy, correction history, and unfinished contract conditions. This paper defines two Kalshi clocks: first decidability, the earliest contemporaneous singleton in the rule-evidence mapping, and stable decidability, the retrospective earliest time after which the same singleton remains unchanged through finalization. A completed retrospective identification test establishes a narrow feasibility result. In a frozen blind pilot, all 25 identities and blinding checks passed and current rule text was recovered for all 25; no exact or bounded historical rule version and no exact or bounded official source-release object was recovered. The full historical recovery covered 152,694 ordinary tickers, 11,530 exact event identities, and 6,540 read-only official requests, with zero historically eligible events and zero historically eligible tickers. This is an observability result, not a claim that no market was decidable or that public evidence never existed. A completed prospective infrastructure shakedown established observation capability for three source programmes across 25 markets, with integrity revalidation of 781,266 lifecycle frames, 22 closed lower-bounded reconnect receipts, no unresolved reconnect gap, no due-but-missed official release, and an inactive price layer. Production evidence enrollment is active. The prospective sample is constructed only at enrollment close from prospectively frozen identities and pre-outcome fields; its frozen target size is selected mechanically under the registered full, reduced, exploratory, or no-go support disposition. No contractual-decidability clock, human-adjudication, price, or cross-venue result is reported here.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 4.0/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 6.0/10
  • Quadrant: Street Traders — practical and empirical, lighter on theory

Why this score: This paper introduces novel concepts of ‘first decidability’ and ‘stable decidability’ for prediction markets, which is a significant contribution. While the mathematical notation is present, it’s not overly complex, focusing more on definitions and propositions. The empirical rigor is demonstrated through detailed retrospective and prospective testing of the infrastructure, even if it’s an observability result rather than a direct market outcome analysis.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
    A[Research Goal: Establish First and Stable Decidability on Kalshi based on Public Evidence] --> B{Methodology: Define Kalshi Clocks & Test Decidability}
    B --> C{Retrospective Identification Test (Blind Pilot)}
    C --> D[Data/Inputs: 152,694 Tickers, 11,530 Event Identities, 6,540 Official Requests]
    C --> E[Computational Processes: Identify Earliest Singleton, Track Changes, Rule Text Recovery]
    E --> F[Outcomes (Retrospective): All 25 Identities & Blinding Checks Passed; No Historical Decidable Events/Tickers Found]
    B --> G{Prospective Infrastructure Shakedown (Observation Capability)}
    G --> H[Data/Inputs: 3 Source Programs, 25 Markets, 781,266 Lifecycle Frames]
    G --> I[Computational Processes: Integrity Revalidation, Reconnect Monitoring, Production Enrollment]
    I --> J[Outcomes (Prospective): Observation Capability Established; No Unresolved Gaps; Production Evidence Enrollment Active]