Greed and Grievance in Civil War

ArXiv ID: ssrn-630727 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

Of the 27 major armed conflicts that occurred in 1999, all but two took place within national boundaries. As an impediment to development, internal rebellion es

Keywords: Armed Conflict, Internal Rebellion, Development Economics, Political Risk, Military Spending, Macro-Economics / Geopolitical Risk

Complexity vs Empirical Score

• Math Complexity: 1.0/10
• Empirical Rigor: 3.0/10
• Quadrant: Philosophers
• Why: The paper is a qualitative social science analysis of civil wars, lacking advanced mathematical formulas or statistical modeling. While it uses empirical data (e.g., conflict counts from 1999), it does not present backtests, code, or implementation-heavy quantitative analysis.

  flowchart TD
    A["Research Question: What drives internal rebellion?<br>Separating 'Greed' vs. 'Grievance'"] --> B["Key Methodology<br>Statistical Analysis of Civil War Onsets"]
    B --> C["Data Inputs<br>Armed Conflict Database & Macroeconomic Data"]
    C --> D["Computational Process<br>Regression Models on Conflict Probability"]
    D --> E["Key Finding: Feasibility matters<br>Low state capacity & high illicit rents<br>increase rebellion risk (Greed)"]
    D --> F["Key Finding: Opportunity matters<br>Economic inequality & political exclusion<br>drive conflicts (Grievance)"]