Paper: SSRN 3078248

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that bitcoin’s medium- to long-term price follows Metcalfe’s law. Bitcoin is modeled as a token digital currency, a medium of exchange w

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 2.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 3.0/10
  • Quadrant: Philosophers — conceptual discussion, limited math and data

Why this score: The paper uses high-level concepts like Metcalfe’s law (n^2) and Gompertz curves but presents them without heavy derivations or complex mathematics. Empirical work is discussed (price fits, manipulation investigation) but the excerpt lacks detailed backtesting methodology, code, or robust statistical metrics.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
  A["Research Goal: Model Bitcoin's value via Metcalfe's Law"] --> B["Methodology: Time-series Regression Analysis"]
  B --> C["Data Input: Historical Bitcoin Price & Active Addresses"]
  C --> D["Computational Process: Log-linear Regression of Price vs Network Value"]
  D --> E{"Key Findings/Outcomes"}
  E --> F["Strong correlation confirms Metcalfe's Law applies"]
  E --> G["Price follows power law: P ~ n²"]
  E --> H["Valuation tool for long-term trends"]