Paper: arXiv 2406.00077

Authors: Fernando Acebes, David Poza, Jose M Gonzalez-Varona, Javier Pajares, Adolfo Lopez-Paredes

Abstract

Obtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more recently, financial limitations. The methods provide different viable schedules for the same project, and the solutions with the shortest duration are considered the best-known schedule for that project. However, no tools currently select which schedule best performs in project risk terms. To bridge this gap, this paper aims to propose a method for selecting the project schedule with the highest probability of meeting the deadline of several alternative schedules with the same duration. To do so, we propose integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling by quantifying the risk of several execution alternatives for the same project. The proposed method, tested with a well-known repository for schedule benchmarking, can be applied to any project type to help managers to select the project schedules from several alternatives with the same duration, but the lowest risk.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 3.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 6.5/10
  • Quadrant: Street Traders — practical and empirical, lighter on theory

Why this score: The paper introduces a novel practical framework for integrating aleatory uncertainty into baseline project schedule selection among equal-duration alternatives. It relies on simulation and empirical benchmarking rather than heavy mathematical derivations, making it a clear and applied operational research study.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal: Select schedule with lowest risk among equal-duration alternatives"] --> B["Input: Benchmark Project Schedules PSPLIB & Aleatory Uncertainties"]
    B --> C["Quantify Risk: Integrate aleatory uncertainty into alternative schedules"]
    C --> D["Simulate & Evaluate: Run Monte Carlo simulations to assess deadline probability"]
    D --> E["Select Baseline: Identify schedule with lowest risk & highest deadline compliance"]
    E --> F["Outcome: Risk-aware schedule selection method applicable to any project"]

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1 of 93 cited works are in the corpus; resolved via arXiv source bundles, Semantic Scholar and OpenAlex. Corpus-wide: 2518 linked papers.