Optimal Capital Structure for Life Insurance Companies Offering Surplus Participation

We adapt Leland’s dynamic capital structure model to the context of an insurance company selling participating life insurance contracts explaining the existence of life insurance contracts which provide both a guaranteed payment and surplus participation to the policyholders. Our derivation of the o

April 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Symmetry classification and invariant solutions of the classical geometric mean reversion process

Based on the Lie symmetry method, we investigate a Feynman-Kac formula for the classical geometric mean reversion process, which effectively describing the dynamics of short-term interest rates. The Lie algebra of infinitesimal symmetries and the corresponding one-parameter symmetry groups of the eq

April 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Midsummer Meme's Dream: Investigating Market Manipulations in the Meme Coin Ecosystem

From viral jokes to a billion-dollar phenomenon, meme coins have become one of the most popular segments in cryptocurrency markets. Unlike utility-focused crypto assets like Bitcoin, meme coins derive value primarily from community sentiment, making them vulnerable to manipulation. This study presen

April 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Discrimination-free Insurance Pricing with Privatized Sensitive Attributes

Fairness has emerged as a critical consideration in the landscape of machine learning algorithms, particularly as AI continues to transform decision-making across societal domains. To ensure that these algorithms are free from bias and do not discriminate against individuals based on sensitive attri

April 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Investigation of Cross-border Banking Activities

This paper investigates cross-border lending behavior from the Group of Seven (G7) during the 2001-2013 period. We employ gravity model to consider how bilateral factors, global factors, and other determinants of pull factors affect cross -border lending . The empirical results demonstrate that driv

April 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Semiparametric Dynamic Copula Models for Portfolio Optimization

The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains foundational in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its applicability to real-world data. Parametric copula structu

April 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Universal portfolios in continuous time: an approach in pathwise Itô calculus

We provide a simple and straightforward approach to a continuous-time version of Cover’s universal portfolio strategies within the model-free context of Föllmer’s pathwise Itô calculus. We establish the existence of the universal portfolio strategy and prove that its portfolio value process is the a

April 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Breaking the Dimensional Barrier: A Pontryagin-Guided Direct Policy Optimization for Continuous-Time Multi-Asset Portfolio Choice

We introduce the Pontryagin-Guided Direct Policy Optimization (PG-DPO) framework for high-dimensional continuous-time portfolio choice. Our approach combines Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle (PMP) with backpropagation through time (BPTT) to directly inform neural network-based policy learning, enablin

April 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Breaking the Trend: How to Avoid Cherry-Picked Signals

Our empirical results show an impressive fit with the pretty complex theoretical Sharpe formula of a trend-following strategy depending on the parameter of the signal, which was derived by by Grebenkov and Serror (2014). That empirical fit convinces us that a mean-reversion process with only one tim

April 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Can Large Language Models Trade? Testing Financial Theories with LLM Agents in Market Simulations

This paper presents a realistic simulated stock market where large language models (LLMs) act as heterogeneous competing trading agents. The open-source framework incorporates a persistent order book with market and limit orders, partial fills, dividends, and equilibrium clearing alongside agents wi

April 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Effective dimensionality reduction for Greeks computation using Randomized QMC

Global sensitivity analysis is employed to evaluate the effective dimension reduction achieved through Chebyshev interpolation and the conditional pathwise method for Greek estimation of discretely monitored barrier options and arithmetic average Asian options. We compare results from finite differe

April 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Greenhouse Gas Offset Credit Markets

Climate change is a major threat to the future of humanity, and its impacts are being intensified by excess man-made greenhouse gas emissions. One method governments can employ to control these emissions is to provide firms with emission limits and penalize any excess emissions above the limit. Exce

April 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Execution in Intraday Energy Markets under Hawkes Processes with Transient Impact

This paper investigates optimal execution strategies in intraday energy markets through a mutually exciting Hawkes process model. Calibrated to data from the German intraday electricity market, the model effectively captures key empirical features, including intra-session volatility, distinct intrad

April 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Predictive AI with External Knowledge Infusion for Stocks

Fluctuations in stock prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors that go beyond mere historical data. These factors, themselves influenced by external forces, encompass inter-stock dynamics, broader economic factors, various government policy decisions, outbreaks of wars, etc. Furthermo

April 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Unified GARCH-Recurrent Neural Network in Financial Volatility Forecasting

In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the GARCH(1,1) volatility update into the multiplicative gating structur

April 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

On the rate of convergence of estimating the Hurst parameter of rough stochastic volatility models

In [“Han & Schied, 2023, \textit{“arXiv 2307.02582”}”], an easily computable scale-invariant estimator $\widehat{"\mathscr{R"}}^s_n$ was constructed to estimate the Hurst parameter of the drifted fractional Brownian motion $X$ from its antiderivative. This paper extends this convergence result by pr

April 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

International Financial Markets Through 150 Years: Evaluating Stylized Facts

In the theory of financial markets, a stylized fact is a qualitative summary of a pattern in financial market data that is observed across multiple assets, asset classes and time horizons. In this article, we test a set of eleven stylized facts for financial market data. Our main contribution is to

April 11, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

End-to-End Portfolio Optimization with Quantum Annealing

Hybrid-quantum classical optimization has emerged as a promising direction for addressing financial decision problems under current quantum hardware constraints. In this work we present a practical end-to-end portfolio optimization pipeline that combines (i) a continuous mean-variance and Sharpe-rat

April 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Market-Based Portfolio Variance

The variance measures the portfolio risks the investors are taking. The investor, who holds his portfolio and doesn’t trade his shares, at the current time can use the time series of the market trades that were made during the averaging interval with the securities of his portfolio and assess the cu

April 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Investment in Equity and Credit Default Swaps in the Presence of Default

We consider an equity market subject to risk from both unhedgeable shocks and default. The novelty of our work is that to partially offset default risk, investors may dynamically trade in a credit default swap (CDS) market. Assuming investment opportunities are driven by functions of an underlying d

April 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space