Intraday Battery Dispatch for Hybrid Renewable Energy Assets

We develop a mathematical model for intraday dispatch of co-located wind-battery energy assets. Focusing on the primary objective of firming grid-side actual production vis-a-vis the preset day-ahead hourly generation targets, we conduct a comprehensive study of the resulting stochastic control prob

March 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Realized Volatility Forecasting for New Issues and Spin-Offs using Multi-Source Transfer Learning

Forecasting the volatility of financial assets is essential for various financial applications. This paper addresses the challenging task of forecasting the volatility of financial assets with limited historical data, such as new issues or spin-offs, by proposing a multi-source transfer learning app

March 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

What Can 240,000 New Credit Transactions Tell Us About the Impact of NGEU Funds?

Using a panel data local projections model and controlling for firm characteristics, procurement bid attributes, and macroeconomic conditions, the study estimates the dynamic effects of procurement awards on new lending, a more precise measure than the change in the stock of credit. The analysis fur

March 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Vote Delegation in DeFi Governance

We investigate the drivers of vote delegation in Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), using the Uniswap governance DAO as a laboratory. We show that parties with fewer self-owned votes and those affiliated with the controlling venture capital firm, Andreesen Horowitz (a16z), receive more v

March 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Accelerating Transportation Decarbonization: The Strategic Role of Ethanol Blends and Regulatory Incentives

This study evaluates ethanol blending as a practical near-term strategy for significant transportation decarbonization in the United States. Despite rapid growth in electric vehicle adoption, gasoline is projected to remain dominant, with annual demand around 135 billion gallons by 2035, necessitati

March 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Bridging Language Models and Financial Analysis

The rapid advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have unlocked transformative possibilities in natural language processing, particularly within the financial sector. Financial data is often embedded in intricate relationships across textual content, numerical tables, and visual charts, posing

March 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Pricing American Parisian Options under General Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Models

This paper develops general approaches for pricing various types of American-style Parisian options (down-in/-out, perpetual/finite-maturity) with general payoff functions based on continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) approximation under general 1D time-inhomogeneous Markov models. For the down-in ty

March 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Tactical Asset Allocation with Macroeconomic Regime Detection

This paper extends the tactical asset allocation literature by incorporating regime modeling using techniques from machine learning. We propose a novel model that classifies current regimes, forecasts the distribution of future regimes, and integrates these forecasts with the historical performance

March 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Kalman Filter in the Problem of the Exchange and the Inflation Rates Adequacy To Determining Factors

Using introduced concept of the exchange and inflation rates adequacy, the relevance of them to the determining factors is found. We established close positive relation between hryvnia / dollar exchange and inflation rates, fiscal deficit, price level of energy sources, and money supply. On this bas

March 13, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Label Unbalance in High-frequency Trading

In financial trading, return prediction is one of the foundation for a successful trading system. By the fast development of the deep learning in various areas such as graphical processing, natural language, it has also demonstrate significant edge in handling with financial data. While the success

March 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach to Automated Stock Trading, using xLSTM Networks

Traditional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are effective for handling sequential data but have limitations such as gradient vanishing and difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies, which can impact their performance in dynamic and risky environments like stock trading. To address these

March 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Leveraging LLMS for Top-Down Sector Allocation In Automated Trading

This paper introduces a methodology leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for sector-level portfolio allocation through systematic analysis of macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment. Our framework emphasizes top-down sector allocation by processing multiple data streams simultaneously, incl

March 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Long-range dependent mortality modeling with cointegration

Empirical studies with publicly available life tables identify long-range dependence (LRD) in national mortality data. Although the longevity market is supposed to benchmark against the national force of mortality, insurers are more concerned about the forces of mortality associated with their own p

March 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Dynamically optimal portfolios for monotone mean--variance preferences

Monotone mean-variance (MMV) utility is the minimal modification of the classical Markowitz utility that respects rational ordering of investment opportunities. This paper provides, for the first time, a complete characterization of optimal dynamic portfolio choice for the MMV utility in asset price

March 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Existence of Optimal Contracts for Principal-Agent Problem with Drift Control and Quadratic Effort Cost

The existence of optimal contracts of the principal-agent problem is a long-standing problem. According to the general framework in Cvitanić et al. [2], this existence can be derived from the existence of a classical solution to a degenerated fully nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation p

March 11, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Liquidity Competition Between Brokers and an Informed Trader

We study a multi-agent setting in which brokers transact with an informed trader. Through a sequential Stackelberg-type game, brokers manage trading costs and adverse selection with an informed trader. In particular, supplying liquidity to the informed traders allows the brokers to speculate based o

March 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Modeling Stock Return Distributions and Pricing Options

This paper provides evidence that stock returns, after truncation, might be modeled by a special type of continuous mixtures or normals, so-called $q$-Gaussians. Negative binomial distributions might model the counts for extreme returns. A generalized jump-diffusion model is proposed, and an explici

March 11, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Randomization in Optimal Execution Games

We study optimal execution in markets with transient price impact in a competitive setting with $N$ traders. Motivated by prior negative results on the existence of pure Nash equilibria, we consider randomized strategies for the traders and whether allowing such strategies can restore the existence

March 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Assessing Uncertainty in Stock Returns: A Gaussian Mixture Distribution-Based Method

This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture distribution to capture the complex, time-varying nature of asset re

March 10, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

FinTSBridge: A New Evaluation Suite for Real-world Financial Prediction with Advanced Time Series Models

Despite the growing attention to time series forecasting in recent years, many studies have proposed various solutions to address the challenges encountered in time series prediction, aiming to improve forecasting performance. However, effectively applying these time series forecasting models to the

March 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space