The Role of Deep Learning in Financial Asset Management: A Systematic Review

This review systematically examines deep learning applications in financial asset management. Unlike prior reviews, this study focuses on identifying emerging trends, such as the integration of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and their transformative

March 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Volterra Stein-Stein model with stochastic interest rates

We introduce the Volterra Stein-Stein model with stochastic interest rates, where both volatility and interest rates are driven by correlated Gaussian Volterra processes. This framework unifies various well-known Markovian and non-Markovian models while preserving analytical tractability for pricing

March 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Forecasting realized volatility in the stock market: a path-dependent perspective

Volatility forecasting in financial markets is a topic that has received more attention from scholars. In this paper, we propose a new volatility forecasting model that combines the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with a family of path-dependent volatility models (HAR-PD). The model utilize

March 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Liquidity-adjusted Return and Volatility, and Autoregressive Models

We construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility using purposely designed liquidity metrics (liquidity jump and liquidity diffusion) that incorporate additional liquidity information. Based on these measures, we introduce a liquidity-adjusted ARMA-GARCH framework to address the limitations of t

March 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Pricing time-capped American options using Least Squares Monte Carlo method

In this paper, we adopt the least squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) method to price time-capped American options. The aforementioned cap can be an independent random variable or dependent on asset price at random time. We allow various time caps. In particular, we give an algorithm for pricing the American

March 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process for Horse Race Betting: A Micro-Macro Analysis of Herding and Informed Bettors

We model the time evolution of single win odds in Japanese horse racing as a stochastic process, deriving an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process by analyzing the probability dynamics of vote shares and the empirical time series of odds movements. Our framework incorporates two types of bettors: herders, who

March 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Shifting Power: Leveraging LLMs to Simulate Human Aversion in ABMs of Bilateral Financial Exchanges, A bond market study

Bilateral markets, such as those for government bonds, involve decentralized and opaque transactions between market makers (MMs) and clients, posing significant challenges for traditional modeling approaches. To address these complexities, we introduce TRIBE an agent-based model augmented with a lar

March 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Understanding the Commodity Futures Term Structure Through Signatures

Signature methods have been widely and effectively used as a tool for feature extraction in statistical learning methods, notably in mathematical finance. They lack, however, interpretability: in the general case, it is unclear why signatures actually work. The present article aims to address this i

March 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Chronologically Consistent Large Language Models

Large language models are increasingly used in social sciences, but their training data can introduce lookahead bias and training leakage. A good chronologically consistent language model requires efficient use of training data to maintain accuracy despite time-restricted data. Here, we overcome thi

February 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Enhanced Derivative-Free Optimization Using Adaptive Correlation-Induced Finite Difference Estimators

Gradient-based methods are well-suited for derivative-free optimization (DFO), where finite-difference (FD) estimates are commonly used as gradient surrogates. Traditional stochastic approximation methods, such as Kiefer-Wolfowitz (KW) and simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA), t

February 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Koedds: A National Real Estate Investment Analysis

With costs and risks increasing for investors and home buyers alike, additional analysis of the housing market is required to help individuals make the right choice. In addition to traditional market analysis, other aspects such as the economic vulnerabilities of the local community must be taken in

February 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Short-Rate Derivatives in a Higher-for-Longer Environment

We introduce a class of short-rate models that exhibit a ``higher for longer’’ phenomenon. Specifically, the short-rate is modeled as a general time-homogeneous one-factor Markov diffusion on a finite interval. The lower endpoint is assumed to be regular, exit or natural according to boundary classi

February 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Strong Solutions and Quantization-Based Numerical Schemes for a Class of Non-Markovian Volatility Models

We investigate a class of non-Markovian processes that hold particular relevance in the realm of mathematical finance. This family encompasses path-dependent volatility models, including those pioneered by [Platen and Rendek, 2018] and, more recently, by [Guyon and Lekeufack, 2023]. Our study unfold

February 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Using quantile time series and historical simulation to forecast financial risk multiple steps ahead

A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the quasi-likelihood is employed by standard historical simulation methods. T

February 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Advanced Deep Learning Techniques for Analyzing Earnings Call Transcripts: Methodologies and Applications

This study presents a comparative analysis of deep learning methodologies such as BERT, FinBERT and ULMFiT for sentiment analysis of earnings call transcripts. The objective is to investigate how Natural Language Processing (NLP) can be leveraged to extract sentiment from large-scale financial trans

February 27, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Better market Maker Algorithm to Save Impermanent Loss with High Liquidity Retention

Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) face persistent challenges in liquidity retention and user engagement due to inefficiencies in conventional automated market maker (AMM) designs. This work proposes a dual-mechanism framework to address these limitations: a ``Better Market Maker (BMM)’’, which is a liq

February 27, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

BiHRNN -- Bi-Directional Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network for Inflation Forecasting

Inflation prediction guides decisions on interest rates, investments, and wages, playing a key role in economic stability. Yet accurate forecasting is challenging due to dynamic factors and the layered structure of the Consumer Price Index, which organizes goods and services into multiple categories

February 27, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Detecting Crypto Pump-and-Dump Schemes: A Thresholding-Based Approach to Handling Market Noise

We propose a simple yet robust unsupervised model to detect pump-and-dump events on tokens listed on the Poloniex Exchange platform. By combining threshold-based criteria with exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) and volatility measures, our approach effectively distinguishes genuine anomal

February 27, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal risk-aware interest rates for decentralized lending protocols

Decentralized lending protocols within the decentralized finance ecosystem enable the lending and borrowing of crypto-assets without relying on traditional intermediaries. Interest rates in these protocols are set algorithmically and fluctuate according to the supply and demand for liquidity. In thi

February 27, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Method for Evaluating the Interpretability of Machine Learning Models in Predicting Bond Default Risk Based on LIME and SHAP

Interpretability analysis methods for artificial intelligence models, such as LIME and SHAP, are widely used, though they primarily serve as post-model for analyzing model outputs. While it is commonly believed that the transparency and interpretability of AI models diminish as their complexity incr

February 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space