Corporate Fraud Detection in Rich-yet-Noisy Financial Graph

Corporate fraud detection aims to automatically recognize companies that conduct wrongful activities such as fraudulent financial statements or illegal insider trading. Previous learning-based methods fail to effectively integrate rich interactions in the company network. To close this gap, we colle

February 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Framework for asset-liability management with fixed-term securities

We consider an optimal investment-consumption problem for a utility-maximizing investor who has access to assets with different liquidity and whose consumption rate as well as terminal wealth are subject to lower-bound constraints. Assuming utility functions that satisfy standard conditions, we deve

February 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Adaptive Nesterov Accelerated Distributional Deep Hedging for Efficient Volatility Risk Management

In the field of financial derivatives trading, managing volatility risk is crucial for protecting investment portfolios from market changes. Traditional Vega hedging strategies, which often rely on basic and rule-based models, are hard to adapt well to rapidly changing market conditions. We introduc

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Agent Trading Arena: A Study on Numerical Understanding in LLM-Based Agents

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language tasks, yet their performance in dynamic, real-world financial environments remains underexplored. Existing approaches are limited to historical backtesting, where trading actions cannot influence market prices

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Combined climate stress testing of supply-chain networks and the financial system with nation-wide firm-level emission estimates

On the way towards carbon neutrality, climate stress testing provides estimates for the physical and transition risks that climate change poses to the economy and the financial system. Missing firm-level CO2 emissions data severely impedes the assessment of transition risks originating from carbon p

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Dynamic Factor Model-Based Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Portfolio Constraints

Motivated by practical applications, we explore the constrained multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem within a market characterized by a dynamic factor model. This model captures predictability in asset returns driven by state variables and incorporates cone-type portfolio constrain

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Recurrent Neural Networks for Dynamic VWAP Execution: Adaptive Trading Strategies with Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

The execution of Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) orders remains a critical challenge in modern financial markets, particularly as trading volumes and market complexity continue to increase. In my previous work arXiv:2502.13722, I introduced a novel deep learning approach that demonstrated signi

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust and Efficient Deep Hedging via Linearized Objective Neural Network

Deep hedging represents a cutting-edge approach to risk management for financial derivatives by leveraging the power of deep learning. However, existing methods often face challenges related to computational inefficiency, sensitivity to noisy data, and optimization complexity, limiting their practic

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Market Maker's Dilemma: Navigating the Fill Probability vs. Post-Fill Returns Trade-Off

Using data from a live trading experiment on the Binance Bitcoin perpetual, we examine the effects of (i) basic order book mechanics and (ii) the persistence of price changes from immediate to short timescales, revealing the interplay between returns, queue sizes, and orders’ queue positions. We doc

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Why do financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow?

In financial market microstructure, there are two enigmatic empirical laws: (i) the market-order flow has predictable persistence due to metaorder splitters by institutional investors, well formulated as the Lillo-Mike-Farmer model. However, this phenomenon seems paradoxical given the diffusive and

February 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework to estimate the effect of supply chain networks on financial systemic risk

Supply chain disruptions constitute an often underestimated risk for financial stability. As in financial networks, systemic risks in production networks arises when the local failure of one firm impacts the production of others and might trigger cascading disruptions that affect significant parts o

February 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Decoding Financial Health in Kenyas' Medical Insurance Sector: A Data-Driven Cluster Analysis

This study examines insurance companies’ financial performance and reporting trends within the medical sector using advanced clustering techniques to identify distinct patterns. Four clusters were identified by analyzing financial ratios and time series data, each representing unique financial perfo

February 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Event-Based Limit Order Book Simulation under a Neural Hawkes Process: Application in Market-Making

In this paper, we propose an event-driven Limit Order Book (LOB) model that captures twelve of the most observed LOB events in exchange-based financial markets. To model these events, we propose using the state-of-the-art Neural Hawkes process, a more robust alternative to traditional Hawkes process

February 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Predicting Liquidity-Aware Bond Yields using Causal GANs and Deep Reinforcement Learning with LLM Evaluation

Financial bond yield forecasting is challenging due to data scarcity, nonlinear macroeconomic dependencies, and evolving market conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that leverages Causal Generative Adversarial Networks (CausalGANs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learnin

February 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Scaling Limits for Exponential Hedging in the Brownian Framework

In this paper, we consider scaling limits of exponential utility indifference prices for European contingent claims in the Bachelier model. We show that the scaling limit can be represented in terms of the \emph{specific relative entropy}, and in addition we construct asymptotic optimal hedging stra

February 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Ensemble RL through Classifier Models: Enhancing Risk-Return Trade-offs in Trading Strategies

This paper presents a comprehensive study on the use of ensemble Reinforcement Learning (RL) models in financial trading strategies, leveraging classifier models to enhance performance. By combining RL algorithms such as A2C, PPO, and SAC with traditional classifiers like Support Vector Machines (SV

February 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Contrastive Similarity Learning for Market Forecasting: The ContraSim Framework

We introduce the Contrastive Similarity Space Embedding Algorithm (ContraSim), a novel framework for uncovering the global semantic relationships between daily financial headlines and market movements. ContraSim operates in two key stages: (I) Weighted Headline Augmentation, which generates augmente

February 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Risk Measures for DC Pension Plan Decumulation

As the developed world replaces Defined Benefit (DB) pension plans with Defined Contribution (DC) plans, there is a need to develop decumulation strategies for DC plan holders. Optimal decumulation can be viewed as a problem in optimal stochastic control. Formulation as a control problem requires sp

February 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The double square-root law: Evidence for the mechanical origin of market impact using Tokyo Stock Exchange data

Understanding the impact of trades on prices is a crucial question for both academic research and industry practice. It is well established that impact follows a square-root impact as a function of traded volume. However, the microscopic origin of such a law remains elusive: empirical studies are pa

February 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Clustered Network Connectedness: A New Measurement Framework with Application to Global Equity Markets

Network connections, both across and within markets, are central in countless economic contexts. In recent decades, a large literature has developed and applied flexible methods for measuring network connectedness and its evolution, based on variance decompositions from vector autoregressions (VARs)

February 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space