Recent advancements have underscored the potential of large language model (LLM)-based agents in financial decision-making. Despite this progress, the field currently encounters two main challenges: (1) the lack of a comprehensive LLM agent framework adaptable to a variety of financial tasks, and (2
With the development of the financial industry, credit default prediction, as an important task in financial risk management, has received increasing attention. Traditional credit default prediction methods mostly rely on machine learning models, such as decision trees and random forests, but these
We study partial information Nash equilibrium between a broker and an informed trader. In this setting, the informed trader, who possesses knowledge of a trading signal, trades multiple assets with the broker in a dealer market. Simultaneously, the broker offloads these assets in a lit exchange wher
This study proposes a multi-task learning framework based on ResNeXt, aiming to solve the problem of feature extraction and task collaborative optimization in financial data mining. Financial data usually has the complex characteristics of high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and time series, and is a
We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that leverages multimodal data including historical stock prices, sentiment analysis, and topic embeddings from news articles, to optimize trading strategies for SP100 stocks. Building upon recent advancements in financial reinforcement learning, we
We show that the state spaces of multifactor Markovian processes, coming from approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes, are given by explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant. We demonstrate the usefulness of this result for applications, including simulation schemes and PDE
With the widespread application of machine learning in financial risk management, conventional wisdom suggests that longer training periods and more feature variables contribute to improved model performance. This paper, focusing on mortgage default prediction, empirically discovers a phenomenon tha
In this paper we derive a new direct inversion method to simulate squared Bessel processes. Since the transition probability of these processes can be represented by a non-central chi-square distribution, we construct an efficient and accurate algorithm to simulate non-central chi-square variables.
We consider a microstructure foundation for rough volatility models driven by Poisson random measures. In our model the volatility is driven by self-exciting arrivals of market orders as well as self-exciting arrivals of limit orders and cancellations. The impact of market order on future order arri
In this paper, we propose a complete modelling framework to value several batteries in the electricity intraday market at the trading session scale. The model consists of a stochastic model for the 24 mid-prices (one price per delivery hour) combined with a deterministic model for the liquidity cost
We use modifications of the Adams method and very fast and accurate sinh-acceleration method of the Fourier inversion (iFT) (S.Boyarchenko and Levendorskiĭ, IJTAF 2019, v.22) to evaluate prices of vanilla options; for options of moderate and long maturities and strikes not very far from the spot, th
The increasing demand for privacy-preserving data analytics in various domains necessitates solutions for synthetic data generation that rigorously uphold privacy standards. We introduce the DP-FedTabDiff framework, a novel integration of Differential Privacy, Federated Learning and Denoising Diffus
As several studies have shown, predicting credit risk is still a major concern for the financial services industry and is receiving a lot of scholarly interest. This area of study is crucial because it aids financial organizations in determining the probability that borrowers would default, which ha
This study examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets. The results show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate, while net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS marke
We use granular regulatory data on euro interest rate swap trades between January 2021 and June 2023 to assess whether derivative positions of Italian banks can offset losses on their debt securities holdings should interest rates rise unexpectedly. At the aggregate level of the banking system, we f
We study small-time central limit theorems for stochastic Volterra integral equations with Hölder continuous coefficients and general locally square integrable Volterra kernels. We prove the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions, a functional CLT, and limit theorems for smooth transfor
We argue that the Declarative Self-improving Python (DSPy) optimizers are a way to align the large language model (LLM) prompts and their evaluations to the human annotations. We present a comparative analysis of five teleprompter algorithms, namely, Cooperative Prompt Optimization (COPRO), Multi-St
Organizing and managing cryptocurrency portfolios and decision-making on transactions is crucial in this market. Optimal selection of assets is one of the main challenges that requires accurate prediction of the price of cryptocurrencies. In this work, we categorize the financial time series into se
A self-exciting point process with a continuous-time autoregressive moving average intensity process, named CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes model, has recently been introduced. The model generalizes the Hawkes process by substituting the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck intensity with a CARMA(p,q) model where the associated st
Because of the theoretical challenges posed by the Efficient Market Hypothesis to technical analysis, the effectiveness of technical indicators in high-frequency trading remains inadequately explored, particularly at the minute-level frequency, where effects of the microstructure of the market domin