Utilizing RNN for Real-time Cryptocurrency Price Prediction and Trading Strategy Optimization

This study explores the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for real-time cryptocurrency price prediction and optimized trading strategies. Given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, traditional forecasting models often fall short. By leveraging RNNs’ capability to capture long-term

November 5, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Advancing DeFi Analytics: Efficiency Analysis with Decentralized Exchanges Comparison Service

This empirical study presents the Decentralized Exchanges Comparison Service (DECS), a novel tool developed by 1inch Analytics to assess exchange efficiency in decentralized finance. The DECS utilizes swap transaction monitoring and simulation techniques to provide unbiased comparisons of swap rates

November 4, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Enhancing Risk Assessment in Transformers with Loss-at-Risk Functions

In the financial field, precise risk assessment tools are essential for decision-making. Recent studies have challenged the notion that traditional network loss functions like Mean Square Error (MSE) are adequate, especially under extreme risk conditions that can lead to significant losses during ma

November 4, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Real-world models for multiple term structures: a unifying HJM semimartingale framework

We develop a unified framework for modeling multiple term structures arising in financial, insurance, and energy markets, adopting an extended Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) approach under the real-world probability. We study market viability and characterize the set of local martingale deflators. We con

November 4, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Reinforcement Learning Methods for the Stochastic Optimal Control of an Industrial Power-to-Heat System

The optimal control of sustainable energy supply systems, including renewable energies and energy storage, takes a central role in the decarbonization of industrial systems. However, the use of fluctuating renewable energies leads to fluctuations in energy generation and requires a suitable control

November 4, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Whack-a-mole Online Learning: Physics-Informed Neural Network for Intraday Implied Volatility Surface

Calibrating the time-dependent Implied Volatility Surface (IVS) using sparse market data is an essential challenge in computational finance, particularly for real-time applications. This task requires not only fitting market data but also satisfying a specified partial differential equation (PDE) an

November 4, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Combining Financial Data and News Articles for Stock Price Movement Prediction Using Large Language Models

Predicting financial markets and stock price movements requires analyzing a company’s performance, historic price movements, industry-specific events alongside the influence of human factors such as social media and press coverage. We assume that financial reports (such as income statements, balance

November 2, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Efficient Nested Estimation of CoVaR: A Decoupled Approach

This paper addresses the estimation of the systemic risk measure known as CoVaR, which quantifies the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another portfolio being at risk. We identify two principal challenges: conditioning on a zero-probability event and the repricing of portfolios. To tackl

November 2, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

FinBERT-BiLSTM: A Deep Learning Model for Predicting Volatile Cryptocurrency Market Prices Using Market Sentiment Dynamics

Time series forecasting is a key tool in financial markets, helping to predict asset prices and guide investment decisions. In highly volatile markets, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), forecasting becomes more difficult due to extreme price fluctuations driven by marke

November 2, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Review of Reinforcement Learning in Financial Applications

In recent years, there has been a growing trend of applying Reinforcement Learning (RL) in financial applications. This approach has shown great potential to solve decision-making tasks in finance. In this survey, we present a comprehensive study of the applications of RL in finance and conduct a se

November 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Survey of Financial AI: Architectures, Advances and Open Challenges

Financial AI empowers sophisticated approaches to financial market forecasting, portfolio optimization, and automated trading. This survey provides a systematic analysis of these developments across three primary dimensions: predictive models that capture complex market dynamics, decision-making fra

November 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Discrete approximation of risk-based prices under volatility uncertainty

We discuss the asymptotic behaviour of risk-based indifference prices of European contingent claims in discrete-time financial markets under volatility uncertainty as the number of intermediate trading periods tends to infinity. The asymptotic risk-based prices form a strongly continuous convex mono

November 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Evaluating Company-specific Biases in Financial Sentiment Analysis using Large Language Models

This study aims to evaluate the sentiment of financial texts using large language models~(LLMs) and to empirically determine whether LLMs exhibit company-specific biases in sentiment analysis. Specifically, we examine the impact of general knowledge about firms on the sentiment measurement of texts

November 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Graph Neural Networks for Financial Fraud Detection: A Review

The landscape of financial transactions has grown increasingly complex due to the expansion of global economic integration and advancements in information technology. This complexity poses greater challenges in detecting and managing financial fraud. This review explores the role of Graph Neural Net

November 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Simulate and Optimise: A two-layer mortgage simulator for designing novel mortgage assistance products

We develop a novel two-layer approach for optimising mortgage relief products through a simulated multi-agent mortgage environment. While the approach is generic, here the environment is calibrated to the US mortgage market based on publicly available census data and regulatory guidelines. Through t

November 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A dynamic programming principle for multiperiod control problems with bicausal constraints

We consider multiperiod stochastic control problems with non-parametric uncertainty on the underlying probabilistic model. We derive a new metric on the space of probability measures, called the adapted $(p, \infty)$–Wasserstein distance $\mathcal{AW}_p^\infty$ with the following properties: (1) th

October 31, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Deep Learning in Long-Short Stock Portfolio Allocation: An Empirical Study

This paper provides an empirical study explores the application of deep learning algorithms-Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer-in constructing long-short stock portfolios. Two datasets comprising randomly selected stocks f

October 31, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Moments by Integrating the Moment-Generating Function

We introduce a novel method for obtaining a wide variety of moments of any random variable with a well-defined moment-generating function (MGF). We derive new expressions for fractional moments and fractional absolute moments, both central and non-central moments. The expressions are relatively simp

October 31, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

On Cost-Sensitive Distributionally Robust Log-Optimal Portfolio

This paper addresses a novel \emph{“cost-sensitive”} distributionally robust log-optimal portfolio problem, where the investor faces \emph{“ambiguous”} return distributions, and a general convex transaction cost model is incorporated. The uncertainty in the return distribution is quantified using th

October 31, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

AI in Investment Analysis: LLMs for Equity Stock Ratings

Investment Analysis is a cornerstone of the Financial Services industry. The rapid integration of advanced machine learning techniques, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), offers opportunities to enhance the equity rating process. This paper explores the application of LLMs to generate multi-

October 30, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space