This paper presents a novel approach to evaluating blue-chip art as a viable asset class for portfolio diversification. We present the Arte-Blue Chip Index, an index that tracks 100 top-performing artists based on 81,891 public transactions from 157 artists across 584 auction houses over the period
This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk estimation, unconditional and conditional quantile forecast
Financial market resilience reflects the ability of a financial market to withstand external shocks and to recover from them, while its measurement has yet to be standardized. Accordingly, this paper quantifies the adaptability and recoverability of China’s total financial market and five key sub-ma
Predicting volatility in financial markets, including stocks, index ETFs, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies, remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics of these time series. In this study, I apply TimeMixer, a state-of-the-art time series forecasting model
We create a firm-level ChatGPT investment score, based on conference calls, that measures managers’ anticipated changes in capital expenditures. We validate the score with interpretable textual content and its strong correlation with CFO survey responses. The investment score predicts future capital
The primary objective of this study was to examine the impact of the US sovereign credit rating downgrade on its equity market. Utilizing the event study methodology, a sample of three most capitalized listed companies – Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon – and the equity market index – S&P500 – were
Stock markets play an important role in the global economy, where accurate stock price predictions can lead to significant financial returns. While existing transformer-based models have outperformed long short-term memory networks and convolutional neural networks in financial time series predictio
We address the problem that classical risk measures may not detect the tail risk adequately. This can occur for instance due to averaging when calculating the Expected Shortfall. The current literature proposes the so-called adjusted Expected Shortfall as a solution. This risk measure is the supremu
We consider the eigenvectors of the principal minor of dimension $n< N$ of the Dyson Brownian motion in $\mathbb{R}^{N}$ and investigate their asymptotic overlaps with the eigenvectors of the full matrix in the limit of large dimension. We explicitly compute the limiting rescaled mean squared overla
Weather parametric insurance relies on weather indices rather than actual loss assessments, enhancing claims efficiency, reducing moral hazard, and improving fairness. In the context of increasing climate change risks, despite growing interest and demand,, weather parametric insurance’s market share
As financial markets grow increasingly complex in the big data era, accurate stock prediction has become more critical. Traditional time series models, such as GRUs, have been widely used but often struggle to capture the intricate nonlinear dynamics of markets, particularly in the flexible selectio
This paper conducts an empirical investigation into the effects of Designated Market Makers (DMMs) on key market quality indicators, such as liquidity, bid-ask spreads, and order fulfillment ratios. Through agent-based simulations, this study explores the impact of varying competition levels and inc
Earnings release is a key economic event in the financial markets and crucial for predicting stock movements. Earnings data gives a glimpse into how a company is doing financially and can hint at where its stock might go next. However, the irregularity of its release cycle makes it a challenge to in
Searching for new effective risk factors on stock returns is an important research topic in asset pricing. Factor modeling is an active research topic in statistics and econometrics, with many new advances. However, these new methods have not been fully utilized in asset pricing application. In this
Structural prediction has long been considered critical in RNA research, especially following the success of AlphaFold2 in protein studies, which has drawn significant attention to the field. While recent advances in machine learning and data accumulation have effectively addressed many biological t
Context: Over the last decade, the forestry sector has undergone substantial changes, evolving from a post-2008 financial crisis landscape to incorporating policies favoring sustainable and green alternatives, especially after the 2015 Paris agreement. This evolution was drastically disrupted with t
Literature highlighted that financial time series data pose significant challenges for accurate stock price prediction, because these data are characterized by noise and susceptibility to news; traditional statistical methodologies made assumptions, such as linearity and normality, which are not sui
In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the main characteristics of the mean-variance efficient frontier employing random matrix theory. Our particular interest covers the case when the dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ tend to infinity simultaneously and their ratio $p/n$ tends to
This article examines the economic effects of an increase in the duration of home loans on households, focusing on the French real estate market. It highlights trends in the property market, existing loan systems in other countries (such as bullet loans in Sweden and Japanese home loans), the curren
In several recent works on infinite-dimensional systems of ODEs \cite{cao_derivation_2021,cao_explicit_2021,cao_iterative_2024,cao_sticky_2024}, which arise from the mean-field limit of agent-based models in economics and social sciences and model the evolution of probability distributions (on the s