Mitigating Extremal Risks: A Network-Based Portfolio Strategy

In financial markets marked by inherent volatility, extreme events can result in substantial investor losses. This paper proposes a portfolio strategy designed to mitigate extremal risks. By applying extreme value theory, we evaluate the extremal dependence between stocks and develop a network model

September 18, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Derivative Pricing Perspective on Liquidity Tokens in Constant Product Market Makers

In decentralized finance, any individual can pool their assets into an automated market maker (AMM) – herein we focus on the constant product market maker (CPMM) – in exchange for a claim on a fraction of future pool assets and fees earned from the market making operations. This position is repres

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Evaluating Investment Risks in LATAM AI Startups: Ranking of Investment Potential and Framework for Valuation

The growth of the tech startup ecosystem in Latin America (LATAM) is driven by innovative entrepreneurs addressing market needs across various sectors. However, these startups encounter unique challenges and risks that require specific management approaches. This paper explores a case study with the

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Macroscopic properties of equity markets: stylized facts and portfolio performance

Macroscopic properties of equity markets affect the performance of active equity strategies but many are not adequately captured by conventional models of financial mathematics and econometrics. Using the CRSP Database of the US equity market, we study empirically several macroscopic properties defi

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Investment under the Influence of Decision-changing Imitation

Decision-changing imitation is a prevalent phenomenon in financial markets, where investors imitate others’ decision-changing rates when making their own investment decisions. In this work, we study the optimal investment problem under the influence of decision-changing imitation involving one leadi

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Investment with Costly Expert Opinions

We consider the Merton problem of optimizing expected power utility of terminal wealth in the case of an unobservable Markov-modulated drift. What makes the model special is that the agent is allowed to purchase costly expert opinions of varying quality on the current state of the drift, leading to

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Unlocking NACE Classification Embeddings with OpenAI for Enhanced Analysis and Processing

The Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE) is the standard classification system for the categorization of economic and industrial activities within the European Union. This paper proposes a novel approach to transform the NACE classification into low-dime

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Value of Information in the Mean-Square Case and its Application to the Analysis of Financial Time-Series Forecast

The advances and development of various machine learning techniques has lead to practical solutions in various areas of science, engineering, medicine and finance. The great choice of algorithms, their implementations and libraries has resulted in another challenge of selecting the right algorithm a

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

What Does ChatGPT Make of Historical Stock Returns? Extrapolation and Miscalibration in LLM Stock Return Forecasts

We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stock returns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourced platform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals, LLM forecasts over-extrapolate, placing excessive weight on recent performance

September 17, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Cross-Lingual News Event Correlation for Stock Market Trend Prediction

In the modern economic landscape, integrating financial services with Financial Technology (FinTech) has become essential, particularly in stock trend analysis. This study addresses the gap in comprehending financial dynamics across diverse global economies by creating a structured financial dataset

September 16, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Decomposition Pipeline for Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization with Applications to Near-Term Quantum Computing

Industrially relevant constrained optimization problems, such as portfolio optimization and portfolio rebalancing, are often intractable or difficult to solve exactly. In this work, we propose and benchmark a decomposition pipeline targeting portfolio optimization and rebalancing problems with const

September 16, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Research and Design of a Financial Intelligent Risk Control Platform Based on Big Data Analysis and Deep Machine Learning

In the financial field of the United States, the application of big data technology has become one of the important means for financial institutions to enhance competitiveness and reduce risks. The core objective of this article is to explore how to fully utilize big data technology to achieve compl

September 16, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust Reinforcement Learning with Dynamic Distortion Risk Measures

In a reinforcement learning (RL) setting, the agent’s optimal strategy heavily depends on her risk preferences and the underlying model dynamics of the training environment. These two aspects influence the agent’s ability to make well-informed and time-consistent decisions when facing testing enviro

September 16, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Shocks-adaptive Robust Minimum Variance Portfolio for a Large Universe of Assets

This paper proposes a robust, shocks-adaptive portfolio in a large-dimensional assets universe where the number of assets could be comparable to or even larger than the sample size. It is well documented that portfolios based on optimizations are sensitive to outliers in return data. We deal with ou

September 16, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Return Prediction for Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection: How Decision-Focused Learning Shapes Forecasting Models

Markowitz laid the foundation of portfolio theory through the mean-variance optimization (MVO) framework. However, the effectiveness of MVO is contingent on the precise estimation of expected returns, variances, and covariances of asset returns, which are typically uncertain. Machine learning models

September 15, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Credit Spreads' Term Structure: Stochastic Modeling with CIR++ Intensity

This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily addresses two gaps in the literature. The first is the lack of

September 13, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Disentangling the sources of cyber risk premia

We use a methodology based on a machine learning algorithm to quantify firms’ cyber risks based on their disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus. The model can identify paragraphs related to determined cyber-threat types and accordingly attribute several related cyber scores to the firm. The cyber

September 13, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Interpool: a liquidity pool designed for interoperability that mints, exchanges, and burns

The lack of proper interoperability poses a significant challenge in leveraging use cases within the blockchain industry. Unlike typical solutions that rely on third parties such as oracles and witnesses, the interpool design operates as a standalone solution that mints, exchanges, and burns (MEB) w

September 13, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

KodeXv0.1: A Family of State-of-the-Art Financial Large Language Models

Although powerful, current cutting-edge LLMs may not fulfil the needs of highly specialised sectors. We introduce KodeXv0.1, a family of large language models that outclass GPT-4 in financial question answering. We utilise the base variants of Llama 3.1 8B and 70B and adapt them to the financial dom

September 13, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Tuning into Climate Risks: Extracting Innovation from Television News for Clean Energy Firms

This article develops multiple novel climate risk measures (or variables) based on the television news coverage by Bloomberg, CNBC, and Fox Business, and examines how they affect the systematic and idiosyncratic risks of clean energy firms in the United States. The measures are built on climate rela

September 13, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space